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Date of Prediction: 2020-10-23 Version:1

Prediction Map
DPKdebator MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
DPKdebator MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem219
 
Rep319
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem219
 
Rep319
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem0+1+1-20-14191218-13
Rep+20+140-1-1303305+13
Ind0000000000


Analysis

No tossups used. Trump makes moderate gains in the Rust Belt, and he improves his margins with non-college whites and minorities. Biden's principal gains are among college whites and in the Sun Belt sans Florida and maybe North Carolina. Minnesota flips to Trump due to further Democratic erosion in the Iron Range and rural parts of the state; parts of the Twin Cities metro may trend further left but are offset by Republican gains elsewhere. New Hampshire flips to Trump because Biden's positions on trade are a poor fit for the historically protectionist state and Biden's spending lead there is relatively small compared to other states. On the other hand, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district flips to Biden as party registration trends there are favorable to the Democrats which signals a shift to the left. Across the board the third party vote share is lower, so in many states Trump and Biden both get a higher percentage of the vote than Trump and Clinton did in 2016.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2019 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 148 35T192
P 2018 Senate 34/35 23/35 57/70 81.4% pie 17 0 24T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 17 2 56T372
Aggregate Predictions 68/74 51/74 119/148 80.4% pie


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