PredictionsMock2020 Presidential Predictions - ground_x (D-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:3

Prediction Map
ground_x MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ground_x MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem351
 
Rep187
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem279
 
Rep125
 
Ind0
 
Tos134
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+7+2+119000211232+119
Rep000-7-2-119232187-119
Ind0000000000


Analysis

11/2/2020: Final map. Biden has maintained a steady lead. Despite the media narrative, he is safe in Pennsylvania (absent any shenanigans, of course). Biden will win Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia, but probably fall short in Texas and Ohio. But that Texas is a tossup is a boon for Democrats--that is resources (time, $$) that could not be spent in the midwest. If there are any surprises, it would be GOP edging it out Florida (like 2018), and/or the Democrats taking Texas and/or Ohio. This may be the last election where the GOP wins Texas; I think that, going forward, Democrats should be more optimistic about Texas than Florida.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 6 0 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 5 2 56T372
P 2016 President 50/56 30/56 80/112 71.4% pie 8 0 246T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 4 0 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 3/12 12/24 50.0% pie 2 0 164T279
P 2014 Senate 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 0 158T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 1 145T300
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 1 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 1 94T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 1 5T228
P 2010 Senate 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 100T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 2 1 91T312
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 7 0 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 1 0 96T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 31/52 14/52 45/104 43.3% pie 2 - 85T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 14/49 5/49 19/98 19.4% pie 1 - 162T235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 4 0 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 16/36 51/72 70.8% pie 3 0 122T312
P 2004 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 30 2 14T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 632/734 408/734 1040/1468 70.8% pie


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