This is essentially a projection that Biden does very well in the early states because Buttigieg/Sanders/Warren all split the vote, and while Sanders eventually emerges as his main rival, it comes too late and some of the more prominent candidates still manage to win their home states.<br /> <br /> The only parts of this I'm seriously predicting are Butti-IA, Sanders-NH, Biden-SC -- everything past that can basically be taken as a vague fantasy. I do sort of think that many western states, especially those that use caucuses, will end up going to Sanders or having him be very strong there even in a world where Warren emerges as Biden's main opponent -- I just don't think we're heading towards that world.