Date of Prediction: 2020-08-10 Version:26
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Analysis
We are a week away from the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee. However, there is still one primary remaining for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden currently has 2,627 delegates of the 1,991 needed to secure the nomination, so the Connecticut primary tomorrow is completely superfluous. For the August 11th primary: In Connecticut, Biden 74%, Sanders 22%. As a result, Connecticut is rated Solid Biden. There has been no nationwide polling in the past four months, so we must assume that it remains with Biden leading with 86% of the vote. POST-PRIMARY UPDATE, AUGUST 12th 2020: Since the primary is over, I decided to look back at my record. Before Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8th, I picked 23/28 (82%) statewide winners correctly, and 7/28 (25%) vote shares correctly. After Mr. Sanders dropped out on April 8th, I picked 24/24 (100%) statewide winners correctly, and 10/24 (42%) vote shares correctly. Overall, I picked 47/52 (90%) statewide winners correctly, and 17/52 (33%) vote shares correctly. This gives me an overall accuracy of 64/104 (62%). FINAL PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Biden: 2,695, Sanders: 1,117, Warren: 79, Bloomberg: 51, Buttigieg: 26, Klobuchar: 7, Gabbard: 2, Uncommitted: 2
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