PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - dgentile (G-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-08-22 Version:3

Prediction Map
dgentile MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dgentile MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem25
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind1
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind1
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+7+1+800014317+8
Rep000-7-1-8707-8
Ind0000000110


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic252752
Republican74047
Independent101
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
473017
piepiepie

Comments

Switched confidence levels on MT, MO

TN - New poll Ford(D) 44% leads Corker(R) 42% (Benenson Strategy Group - Int.)

VA - Allen retracts his apology, blames media for his racist remarks. http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/22/142134/457

NV - (From PoliticalWire.com)

Said Ensign: "I don't think the polls this early in the game are something you can, one, rely on because they're an indicator at a point in time. If you take anyone lightly because you are up you can have what almost happened to Harry Reid. I never want to have that happen. I learned my lesson from Harry."


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: dgentile (G-NJ) - 2006-08-27 @ 19:48:02

Re: RaisingKaine donors; I don't see any direct link to the Webb campaign, nor any reason to conceal it alla Swift Boaters slime sites. The donors are openly listed here: http://www.vpap.org/donors/gifts_topgivers.cfm

It is clear it is a partisan site. I don't see that as a problem. It is a good jumping off point, with links and documented stories, not just rumor and allegations.
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 By: polpro (R-NV) - 2006-08-28 @ 02:13:01

The Ensign quote must be taken in context, which you did not provide. In 1998, Ensign ran against Reid for the U.S. Senate and lost narrowly. If I am remembering right, REID had the huge lead and Ensign snuck up on him and almost won.

That said, I take his quote as an indication he won't take Jack Carter for granted--but there are still NO indications I can see to alter my perception that Carter has a better chance of winning MegaBucks than he does of winning a U.S. Senate seat this year.
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 By: dgentile (G-NJ) - 2006-08-29 @ 00:23:29

Aug. 21 Zogby Interactive Poll
AZ - 48 Kyl R / 44 Pederson D
NV - 48 Ensign R / 45 Carter D
TN - 47.5 Corker R / 44 Ford D
VA - 47 Allen R / 48 Webb D

All within margin of error.

July 31 Rasmussen Poll
NV - 46 Ensign R / 39 Carter D

I think the odds on any of these are way better than 'MegaBucks'. Don't dismiss Zogby Interactive, which is partial phone poll, either. It's a lot closer to CV than some others. I think Ensign is sensing the mood of the nation and knows he is not going to have a cake walk. I don't expect this to shake a true believer, but the odds are the next poll map will have less blue.
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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-08-29 @ 08:24:51

Also, Zogby has Talent leading McCaskill but you didn't change that. The point is that public polls have to back up these Zogby polls.prediction Map

 By: ryer (R-VA) - 2006-08-29 @ 13:10:34

While I would concur with your comment that "public polls have to back up these Zogby polls," MLEFLO1/Olawakandi, I am curious as to why you changed your prediction in the Nevada gubernatorial race. In that case, Zogby's is the only poll that showed Titus with a lead, but you changed your call in that state to Titus.

Allow me to dismiss Zogby Interactive, dgentile. Your discription of it being a "partial phone poll" is generous. By his own discription, only 20 to 50 phone calls are made in each of the states in which he "polls." Moreover, those calls are not made to measure voter sentiment, but instead to confirm that the e-mail responses he is receiving are coming from the people who claim to be sending them. This is not an accepted methodology in polling, but instead an effort by Zogby to keep his costs to a minimum.

At this point in 2004, Zogby Interactive showed Kerry leading in Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, and Tennessee. The poll is the prognosticative equivalent of a Ouija board.
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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-08-29 @ 13:47:20

Well I believe that Dina Titus is within the margin of error now to Gibbons, whereas I don't think Webb is inside the margin of error to Allen. That's why I changed NV.prediction Map

 By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) - 2006-08-29 @ 14:05:20

Look obviously this guy is a joke and doesn't want to be taken seriously if he using Zogby and insider polls to justify what he does.prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-08-29 @ 14:49:10

As long as Titus is within the margin of error, which I think now she is, she has a shot of winning the race. Gibbons is very conserv, much more conserv than Guinn and I am not sure that will play well in an independent state like Nevada.prediction Map

 By: dgentile (G-NJ) - 2006-08-29 @ 20:03:29

Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-08-29 @ 08:24:51

"Also, Zogby has Talent leading McCaskill but you didn't change that. The point is that public polls have to back up these Zogby polls."

The differnce between v.2 and v.3 was to lower confidence in MO to tossup (and raise MT). Its voting history points to tossup. I didn't change AZ, also within MOE, because its history points to lean/strong R.

What constitutes a 'public' poll? While WSJ / ZI might bias to tech. & finance savy, it is certainly 'public'. I've seen several outlier polls, and drasticly conflicting polls from the big names. If the big firms demographics or model is off, they're no better than Ouija boards either. As the Ensign quote indicates, even the pros are skeptical.

I try to track news as much as the polls. Ten people at a K. Harris rally is really bad. So is 'macaca' going network. Corker refusing to release his taxes, his own internal poll, or to debate, gives a hint as to whats going on there. I don't have much on NV or AZ other than to say they are not in the CA, FL, NY, TX, UT category and not beyond reason.

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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-08-29 @ 20:11:43

Rasmussen has had Talent ahead of McCaskil for the past month. The point is is like Ryer has been saying the Dems sweeping all the battleground races is highly unlikely. The current projection of the prognosticators is 3-4 seats.prediction Map

 By: DanR (D-NC) - 2006-08-29 @ 20:43:43

Olawakandi,

You are talking about the "professional" prognosticators. Screw them. We may be maintaining our amateur status, but we are just as likely to be right as they are. Read your own tea leaves and then be bold!
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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-08-29 @ 20:59:47

If you look at the Gallup poll and Hotline polls the congressional republicans have gained and Bush approval ratings have gone up. I would be suprised to see the Dems take over either House at this time. Gallup 47D 45R and Hotline 40D 40R. And Rasmussen has the balance of power 50D 47R and 3 tossups there is no evidence the Dems will sweep all the battleground states. Taking over the senate is possible but not probable like this mapmaker suggest. The Dems if they do takeover will win either TN, VA, AZ, or NV not sweep them. All I am saying is that the takeover of the House of the Senate or both are very much possible but with the persistent threat of the war on terror it is not probable that we will take over either chamber. As a Dem I would love to do so but I am advising caution. But no one is suggesting that the Dems will sweep all the battleground races. By the way, I am much more bolder in predicting the governor races.

Last Edit: 2006-08-30 @ 01:28:30
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 By: dgentile (G-NJ) - 2006-09-15 @ 22:34:07

OK, Its well after Labor Day and TN gone grey (with two of last three polls going to Ford) and VA gone pale after racism didn't just go away. Thats two of three of the NO WAY NO HOW states. Rumor is Ensign has internals but not releasing them. Wonder Why? Pederson is closing the gap in AZ. Anyone sensing a trend?prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-09-15 @ 22:39:17

NV the recent poll has Ensign ahead by 21 pts. Allen is ahead by 7 points. I don't think Webb or Carter are ahead at this point.

Last Edit: 2006-09-15 @ 22:39:58
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 By: polpro (R-NV) - 2006-09-15 @ 22:43:36

I am not sure about Ensign "internals"--I do know that the latest PUBLIC poll has Ensign ahead of Carter 56-35%. Don't know who the pollster is, just that it was a telephone poll of 600 voters statewide. http://www.krnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5408266

If it is accurate, then a 21 point lead for the OTHER guy while having YOUR guy win seems overly optimistic.

Last Edit: 2006-09-15 @ 23:07:05
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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-09-15 @ 23:10:20

Carter doesn't even have an active campaign going at this point. Him and Titus don't have the funds to keep up in the race.prediction Map

 By: dgentile (G-NJ) - 2006-09-20 @ 00:21:45

There are only a few data points for NV. Research 2k is flat. Mason Dixon shows a decline for Ensign. Rasmussen has it tight. Three conflicting polls in a state which is not predictable with an even party split. These are not the conditions of a 'lock'. Can anyone measure the depth of the support for the incumbent? How much 'support' is just name recognition and not being incompetent? I point to TN, VA and AZ because people were claiming they were solid, and now they are not. Again, NV has been my 'outside' pick since start, but I don't think it overly optimistic, not more than anyone still predicting a Santorum victory party.

I am not predicting a sweep of all toss-ups, as shown by the confidence levels. I don't see a way to balance personal prediciton total pick-up for this, though it balances out over all predictions. Enhancement?

Thanks to PolPRo for local news link. Local coverage always helps, particulary post debate analysis.

PS: A debate would be the best thing for Carter right now.
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 By: polpro (R-NV) - 2006-09-20 @ 02:00:32

dgentile,

I have said more than once that Santorum is leading with my heart and not my head--though I recently added that Casey's awful MTP performance should give Santorum hope.

All that said, Santorum is down what? 8 points according to most reputable polls. Carter is down 21 in at least 2.

So I will give you Nevada as "overly optimistic" though I also think your prediction of a Carter win is highly improbable.
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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-09-20 @ 04:01:46

Ok folks, there are a lot of people like me out there who vote with their pocketbook. Now, with falling gas prices, a fairly decent economy, and more attention paid to terrorism, the Democrats chance of gaining seats become more and more remote. prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-09-20 @ 06:21:26

Zogby also has Ensign up by 12 an increase than the 3 pts in August.prediction Map

 By: Smash255 (D-NY) - 2006-09-20 @ 23:22:27

Repub

The economy still really isn't decent. "Real Wages" (any wage inceased when compared to inflation) is downm especially among those in the middle and working class. It has gone up foor those on the top, but those in the middle it hasn't. Gas Prices have gone down, but they are still very high. Any benefit the GOP has on the War on terror is more than outweigheed by the devistating impacts of the war in Iraq (look at bush's #'s on Terror & his #'s on Iraq, the Negatives on Iraq are far higher than the positives on terror)
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 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-09-21 @ 05:17:15

Except the fact that in every poll the GOP numbers are narrowing on the congressional ballot and in the congressional races. The Dems aren't going to win every comeptetive race when you have the GOP tied. And that is today who knows what the economy will be like in Nov. And the GOP numbers have improved substantially.prediction Map

 By: Smash255 (D-NY) - 2006-09-22 @ 01:31:13

That was a poll. the CBS poll which was just released shows the Dems have a 15 point advatage on the Generic ballot question, thhe Generic Ballot polls are bouncing all over the place right nowprediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-09-23 @ 12:59:17

EVERYONE

downwithdaleft (R-NJ) and Ultra Liberal (G-SAU) are one and the same. Please condemn this disgraceful practice of double identities.
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 By: dgentile (G-NJ) - 2006-11-09 @ 19:25:45

Well, its been fun watching the polls and defending the predictions. Not shabby, though sticking with NV cost some. TN was a heartbreaker. Maybe Ford will try again in '08 ? Overall a good night for Dems, and a good night to you all.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 238
P 2020 President 51/56 37/56 88/112 78.6% pie 2 168 480T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 331 101T423
P 2016 President 42/56 25/56 67/112 59.8% pie 2 26 597T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 1 96 277T362
P 2012 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 2 1 508T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 34 144T343
P 2010 Senate 26/37 16/37 42/74 56.8% pie 4 48 359T456
P 2008 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 12 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 29 117T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 77 232T465
P 2004 President 46/56 24/56 70/112 62.5% pie 5 76 1629T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 426/485 263/485 689/970 71.0% pie


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