PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - tancredo08 (R-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-09-29 Version:4

Prediction Map
tancredo08 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
tancredo08 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem5
 
pie
Rep27
 
Ind1
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem5
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind1
 
Tos15
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-9-3-12505-12
Rep+9+3+1200014115+12
Ind0+1+10-1-10000


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic52732
Republican274067
Independent101
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
21156
piepiepie

Comments

Changed FL, NY, DE, and ND to GOP

FL- Republicans will realize there are forever endebted to Katherine Harris for 2000

NY- Even NY will realize Hillary is a fool

DE- Jan Ting will likely make the turnaround necessary, otherwise Castle will step in

ND- Too conservative of a state and there should be a last minute ballot switch to Hoevan

Even if we do 7 seats worse, its still a veto proof majority

Considering changing CA as Mountjoy is gaining momentum, also thinking about Raese dropping out, Byrd dying and Moore winning th win. Also a last-minute run from Tommy Thompson would give the GOP WI. Mitt Romney could take out Ted Kennedy, so Bingamen is really the only "safe" Democrat, and he still might be defeated


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: gumball machine (L-CA) - 2006-09-29 @ 21:05:09

Use Baye's Theorem or Occam's Razor for once, will you?prediction Map

 By: tancredo08 (R-NY) - 2006-09-30 @ 08:23:55

It could happenprediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-09-30 @ 09:31:59

BOYCOTT ALL TANCREDO08 MAPS.prediction Map

 By: Eytan (D-ISR) - 2006-09-30 @ 10:21:13

Hey, doesn't this look strangely close to Ultraliberal's map?prediction Map

 By: tancredo08 (R-NY) - 2006-09-30 @ 11:56:07

I made a case for each one! Don't get so excited, most Dems are overly optimistic anywayprediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-09-30 @ 12:10:26

You're either insane or you're a prankster (the probable scenario).prediction Map

 By: Dick Cheney (R-VA) - 2006-09-30 @ 12:29:03

prankster? NAH!!! Blue is just this guy's favorite color. Or else he's on drugs. Did you bring enough to share with everyone?prediction Map

 By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-10-01 @ 09:48:59

Um, I'm wondering in this scenario, regarding Delaware, does Castle walk, hobble or crawl his way out of the hospital to replace the unelectable Ting on the ballot?

You have heard about Castle's recent stroke haven't you? I think the rest of us have.
prediction Map

 By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-10-01 @ 09:51:15

If you think my second cousin Pete Ricketts is going to buy his way into the Senate, by defeating Senator Ben Nelson in Nebraska you must be smoking some weed!

That or you have no clue about the electorate of Nebraska's respect for Senator Nelson.
prediction Map

 By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-10-01 @ 09:55:00

The other Nelson, Bill of Florida, will only lose to Harris if it is found out that he and Congressman Foley teamed up together to become an on-line pedophile.

Harris is definitely dead meat for election day.

And ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha about Hillary in your state of NY. Exactly what bunker are you living in?

And Klobuchar and Stabenow losing in MN and MI (not to mention Conrad in ND & Cardin in MD) respectively is just way out in the twilight zone area of this map (or the smoking of that weed).
prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-10-01 @ 16:27:39

BOYCOTT ALL TANCREDO08 MAPS!prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-10-01 @ 16:49:18

He is playing games, he says one thing about who is going to win and then he says another on another prediction.prediction Map

 By: tancredo08 (R-NY) - 2006-10-03 @ 16:20:23

BOYCOTT ALL DB AS THEY ARE JUST AS BAD!prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-10-03 @ 17:03:21

moron

You're a crazy, insane idiot; leave.
prediction Map

 By: G W Bush (R-DC) - 2006-10-03 @ 18:17:19

I am glad we are keeping the discourse on a high level. I'd hate to see us fall into name calling and stuff.prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-10-03 @ 19:00:02

Where did you learn a big word like "Discourse" at?prediction Map

 By: canuck777 (R-NV) - 2006-10-04 @ 06:11:12

I don't see Hillary losing in New York.prediction Map

 By: G W Bush (R-DC) - 2006-10-04 @ 12:22:28

Repub,

You forget I married a School Marm. She helps me with the big words and spelling. I still have a lot of trouble with the grammatigorical stuff though. But I benefit from the soft bigotry of low expectations.
prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-10-05 @ 00:40:48

Wow. I thought the rumors of the Republican Plague were just tabloid fodder but this map proves its true. I'd better warn my Democrat friends before their bleeding hearts turn into black holes too! I mean come on! Thats the only scenario in which this map could be even remotely true. The only chance Republicans have for a pick up is in New Jersey. Everything I've heard about Menendez leads me to beleive the guy is a complete idiot.prediction Map

 By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-10-07 @ 11:30:34

Yeah that might be true padfoot, but on the just released Gallup poll, Menendez has taken a lead over Kean, Jr. 44 to 37%. And the Cook political report is saying Kean is coming across now as just much of an idiot, therefore his sinking prospects. prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-10-07 @ 11:58:05

cnbpjb,
I was perusing through some of your earlier comments and I have to say that by comparing the results of this map to the effects of smoking weed is just giving weed a more negative reputation than it deserves. I would guess that this map is more of the result of dropping acid or some other type of hallucinogen.
prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-10-07 @ 12:21:29



Last Edit: 2006-10-07 @ 16:15:19
prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) - 2006-10-19 @ 16:15:43

How much does Karl Rove pay you?

Last Edit: 2006-10-19 @ 16:16:10
prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-10-19 @ 16:20:42

Apparently not enough to seek help.

Last Edit: 2006-10-19 @ 16:20:57
prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-10-19 @ 22:10:27

blue is for democrats right?prediction Map

 By: Gabu (D-BC) - 2006-11-09 @ 15:01:05

So, how 'bout that Senator Spencer? Clinton was sure showed a thing or two.prediction Map

 By: Deano963 (D-OH) - 2006-11-10 @ 04:18:58

Wow. The Democrats ended up picking up 6 seats. The fool who made this map predicted a GOP gain of 12 seats.

That means you were off by a net difference of 18 seats my friend. I wouldn't quit your day job if I were you - political forecasting does not seem to be one of your talents.
 

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-11-26 @ 11:02:28

It's not just that his forcasting is off, its a denial that the Dems were going to do well. And the republicans say the congressional ballot test doesn't matter, and it mattered this time.

Last Edit: 2006-11-27 @ 07:03:50
prediction Map

 By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) - 2006-12-09 @ 13:04:44

I love Tom Tancredoprediction Map

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-12-19 @ 00:48:14

I am glad that this do-nothing congress is gone. This congress has worked only 102 days when many of us work about 260 days a year. A georgia republican congressman said dems do not care about family values because Steny Hoyer wants to increase the work schedule for congress.

Last Edit: 2006-12-20 @ 09:01:07
prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-12-24 @ 19:06:57

The republicans and Tom Tancredo were wrong about immigration and they paid a price at the polls. You don't build a berlin wall around mexico.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 24/56 12/56 36/112 32.1% pie 1 496 14931,505
P 2008 Senate 17/33 7/33 24/66 36.4% pie 1 138 405407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 15/33 6/33 21/66 31.8% pie 4 39 465465
P 2006 Governor 18/36 5/36 23/72 31.9% pie 3 39 312312
Aggregate Predictions 74/158 30/158 104/316 32.9% pie


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