Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-10-13 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	0	+5	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-5	9	1	10	-5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	27	48
Republican	10	40	50
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	32	22

Comments

I switched Rhode Island; I still think that Chafee could well win, but a string of post-primary polls saying otherwise forced my hand here. While Ford has narrowly led many polls in TN, I still think that enough Republicans and conservatives will "come home" to Corker for him to pull it out. I also have a feeling that the same might prove true for DeWine in Ohio, but as an incumbent who has trailed, often by significant margins, for some time it's getting progressively harder to see that pulling him ahead. (Still, the GOP's "firewall" strategy leads me to keep it at Tossup).

I considered switching NJ at one point, but with Menendez leading Kean in the last several polls I decided to keep it at Dem Tossup.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	49/56	28/56	77/112	68.8%	1	495	625	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	5	25	65	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	25/36	61/72	84.7%	4	25	22	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	117/125	75/125	192/250	76.8%

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