I switched Rhode Island; I still think that Chafee could well win, but a string of post-primary polls saying otherwise forced my hand here. While Ford has narrowly led many polls in TN, I still think that enough Republicans and conservatives will "come home" to Corker for him to pull it out. I also have a feeling that the same might prove true for DeWine in Ohio, but as an incumbent who has trailed, often by significant margins, for some time it's getting progressively harder to see that pulling him ahead. (Still, the GOP's "firewall" strategy leads me to keep it at Tossup).

I considered switching NJ at one point, but with Menendez leading Kean in the last several polls I decided to keep it at Dem Tossup.

No changes in any of the final results, though I could just as easily predict the opposite results in Missouri, New Jersey, and Rhode Island (though the GOP may have dodged a self-inflicted bullet by renominating Chafee.)

Tennessee at least temporarily moves to Tossup.

I tentatively switched Ohio to Democratic tossup, in light of several polls that show Brown over DeWine; the governor's race probably won't help DeWine either. But a few surveys or soundings that show DeWine ahead or regaining his footing and I'll probably turn it back.

I also switched Connecticut to Independent Democratic; with Lieberman apparently determined to carry on as an Indy, I think there's enough disaffected moderate Dems and moderate GOPers, as well as nonpartisan voters, for him to slip through with a plurality. If he falters or changes his mind then Lamont wins.

Still waiting on what happens in the Rhode Island GOP primary; for now I am projecting Chafee as the winner.

First change; didn't change any of my ultimate results, but tweaked a few of the percentages and moved Ohio to tossup (though when forced to choose a side, I kept it with DeWine.)

I'm keeping Connecticut Democratic for now, while predicting that Senator Lieberman is reelected as either a Dem or Indy. Even if he wins as an Independent, he'll still caucus with the Democratic party and thus would effectively remain a Democrat in the Senate, even if some liberal activists and the "blogosphere" don't want to consider him as such.

I based this on polling and trends so far this year, which seem to point to Democratic gains, but not overwhelmingly.

MO was the toughest call to make, with MT, MN, and OH close behind. RI depends on what happens in the GOP primary; for now I'm assuming a Chafee renomination.

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