Comments
This is my final map barring some major breaking news/scandal. Which is always a possiblity.
Breakdown of the ten seats that i consider competive. PA not included
Arizona - will be taken by Kyl, he is not going to win by much allowing Napoltino to confidently appoint pederson if McCain wins the presidency.
Maryland - this will be very close, the dem nature and a stong record for the state will pull cardin through.
Michagan - In the end Stabanow pulls out a squeeker. Her incumbancy and record will pervail over the situation in the state.
Missoura - McCaskills wins not because Talent has commited a firable offense. However the climate, the dems GOTV in the state, and finally the brillant Fox ad combined with her support for a popular adm. will win the day.
Montana - Tester pulls this out in another down to the wire race. His economic populism coupled with his downhome montanian attitude will prevail over an out of touch well to put it bluntly a--. Burns just loves the taste of loafers.
New Jersey - in a battle of the worst canidates, by comprasion, Menedez will win due to his experience, the nature of the state, and the inability of kean to do anything outside of yell corruption.
Ohio - Brown(my favorite canidate)will win because of the ressonance of his populist message, this sould be used by more dems in the rust belt it really works, and the climate of ohio is just horrible for the gop.
Rhode Island - if it was not for control of the senate Chafee would be reelected. The two so close on issues it isane. i watched the debates it seemed more like a primary than a general. If chaffee wins and the senate is tied their will be a real battle over chaffee.
Tennesse - though ford is my second favorite canidate slightly ahead of tester. His race and that horrible, obviously racially undertoned, ad will just be enough to pull him down. I am waiting to see how much worse he does than the polls show. I guess 5 points.
Virginia - Taking the cake for my least favorite elected senator Georgey boy wins due to his past work and his horrible missuse of webbs writing. Go into battle Georgey then you might understand whats really going on. Hell watch any realistic vietnam movie.
Comments History
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hideVersion: 10
Changes
Ind. - well if Scott what his name or who the hell cares pickups 4% i would be impressed moved Lugar to 90%+
Tennesse - moved to tossup/lean ford well because he is by far and away the better canidate. The only way corker wins is that he is white and ford is well 20% black. Sad but true if these were two white canidates this would be with Casey and tester as automatic.
New Jersey - Menedez is horrible but Kean is worse in a dem state Menedez wins.
Rhode Island - Is now favoring Whitehouse i thought this would be a tossup till the end but, i think that cook(or whomever writes for him in the senate.) said it best chaffee and whitehouse are the same but whitehouse votes for dem leadership and that what matters in CT.
Version: 9
One change
I have seen enough from montana to say the it now favors Tester.
Version: 8
Changes
Big one
NJ switch party - the last poll is just to bad for Menendez if he is only polling at 39% he is in serious trouble. I don't think it is strong like some people but right now it looks like kean is going to take this seat.
Toss- Ups
Michagan - back to lean stabanow wethered the storm and seems to have regained the momentum and for good.
Ohio - I think it time to say dewine is done, it still close in the polls but the climate is horrible and he has not been able to make up ground with the rest of his reps in the past month.
Tenn - now a toss - up i was sure that after the primary ford would drop further in the polls but i was pleasantly suprised to see it the other way. Ultimatly i see ford losing but it will be down to the wire and stay within the MOE the rest of the cycle.
MD - now a toss-up i think cardin is going to win but unlike before if he wins it is a garuanteed victory in the fall like i once thought.
Version: 7
Changes
Toss - Ups
MI - recent polls and poor job numbers
MT - recent polls, tester inability to challnge burns and to attack him when he is weak, and poor campaigning
VA - recent comments and polls
DEM - IND
Lieberman seems poised to win as long as he does not drop below 30-40% support amongst dems he will be able to win this one (35% now)
Version: 4
VT changed from Ind to Dem after Sanders filed as a democrat yesterday.
Member Comments By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-10-29 @ 11:07:44
By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-29 @ 12:58:07
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