Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-02 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	0
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	27	49
Republican	9	40	49
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
44	33	11

Comments

Changed MO from tossup to lean Democrat based on recent polling. I know it's close, but it will go one way or the other and I think it will wind up D. Changed TN to strong Republican. Corker appears to be picking up steam and will win.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Looking more likely Ford will lose in TN. But in MO and especially VA it looks like the Democrats are gaining momentum and might win. VA seems to be trending Democratic and MO has a slight advantage in recent polls for the Democrat.

Dems +6 in the U.S. Senate.

Version: 3

Based on recent polling, I flipped TN and VA.

It's doubtful Ford can win in TN. Are we going to have the first Southern black Senator since Reconstruction elected next Tuesday? The polls say no, so I give TN to the Rs.

VA has two polls in a row with Webb in positive terrority. Webb is picking up momentum just at the right time to win. I don't know what is going on in VA on the ground, but perhaps the attack ads are backfiring. Momentum and the fact that VA is not adverse to electing Democrats altogether, makes me think Webb will pull it out next Tuesday and win.

Big MO is still a toss-up. No clear leader there, could break either way really. National momentum favoring the Democrats might put the Democrat over the top in MO.

Version: 1

The big toss ups appear to be MO and TN. Every other Senate race should wind up the way the polls are already leaning. NJ and MT are definitely in the Democrat column.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	55/56	34/56	89/112	79.5%	15	10	247	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	11/33	44/66	66.7%	5	5	299	T	465
2004 President	52/56	5/56	57/112	50.9%	63	3	1820	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	140/145	50/145	190/290	65.5%

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