Biggest change is flipping Virginia over to Webb. Webb's lead is not solid but if it lasts through the weekend Allen will lose by a point or two.

Burns still has a shot in Montana, and this will be a very close race. In the end Tester will also squeak through by two points or so.

Missouri is the ultimate nail-biter. McCaskell has a number of things swinging in her favor but I have heard that African-American support for her is lukewarm. That will hurt her most in St. Louis and St. Louis county, where she needs to rack up a sizable majority.

Looks like Ford's promising shot in Tennessee is evaporating. The racial component of Corker's ads appear to be working fairly well. This is unfortunate as Ford would have been forced to be a conservative Democrat in the Senate. Corker has never seen a tax increase he didn't like.

Maryland looks like the strongest chance for a Republican upset now. Ehrlich is pulling even against O'Malley now so there is a small chance of a spillover vote going towards Steele. I still think Cardin will slightly win but it looks like it will be a late night in Maryland of all places.

If it were not for Maryland, Missouri, and Virginia I would say this is my final prediction for the Senate races. Those three states continually keep me guessing so I will see how I feel about things on Monday.

 By: Eytan (D-ISR) - 2006-11-03 @ 07:24:53

I know that the endorsement for Steele will certainly give him a boost, but you come right down to it, most Maryland voters will get swept in the national "wave", and Maryland will become not-so-close. I'll bet that the state will be called for Cardin before midnight ET.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-03 @ 17:59:15

I never really buy into the "wave" talk that the Charlie Cooks and others of the world like to talk so much about. Elections are won and lost locally and national environment is secondary to that. However, if this turns out to be a "wave" election this will be longest predicted tidal wave perhaps in American history. I am currently seeing strange indications showing that safe Republicans might be in trouble while other Republicans who are in tight races should pull through. I am not sure if this indicates "waves" but it does show Dems have been working hard in the second and third tier races. Very interesting developments.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-03 @ 19:25:06

Here's something I pulled off of the Drudge report. 12 SMARTCARDS GO MISSING IN TENNESSEE; CONTROL ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES Fri Nov 03 2006 10:09:31 ET Political insiders have expressed alarm after 12 voter smartcards have gone missing from one Shelby County, TN early vote location! The cards are used to activate electronic voting machines. The location at the center of the controversy is Bishop Byrne High School on E. Shelby Drive in Memphis. The polling place started out with 25 cards. By Wednesday, 11 were missing, says an eyewitness. The location was given 5 more smartcards on Thursday. And another card went missing! Someone possessing a smartcard could use 'off the shelf equipment' [equipment that reprograms the card] and alter it to be used multiple times, and cast multiple votes. One concerned insider explains: "Shelby County Board of Elections has been notified. They said is was 'not a big deal' because, they said, the cards are deactivated. But the reality is, you can buy the equipment at computer stores to reactivate them. It's on the Internet how to reactivate the cards!" Meanwhile, The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation is reviewing reports by the Shelby County Election Commission that two people voted twice during early voting in Memphis. Dist. Atty. Gen. Bill Gibbons said he's referred the cases to the TBI for investigation along with other matters he declined to discuss. Poll watchers are expected to turn out Tuesday to observe voting in Tennessee's heated U.S. Senate race between Chattanooga Republican Bob Corker and Memphis Democrat Harold Ford Jr. Developing...

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-03 @ 23:19:05

RfD, I know we've talked before about how this won't be a Democratic wave but I think they're starting to convince me it will be. With all the second and third tier matches suddenly being seen as competitive its looking more and more like the Dems will have gains of at least 20 or more in the House. Take a look at the mapmaker comments on my Senate map and see if you agree.

 By: Eytan (D-ISR) - 2006-11-04 @ 02:59:50

RepubforDem, 1994 was a national election. 50 Democrartic seats changed hands not because of local issues. Karl Rove has made sure that all GOP candidates will maintain the party line - stay on course. So you have a situation where decent Republican candidates, both incumbents and new candidates, have to stick with something they don't particularly support. Bush's biggest problem is that he is George W. Bush. And now, that is a liability for the Republican party, not an asset. If not for the national "wave", Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, OH-02, OH-18, FL-13, AZ-01, KY-04, NC-11, VA-02 and on and on, would not be competative. But they are. And not by coincidence. There are few elections with historical importance. 1860, for sure. Also 1932. Possibly also 1980. And maybe, just maybe, 2006 will be considered the most important mid-term election in recent American history. More than 2002.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 04:12:40

I would also put 1964 in that category as well. Its the first time the Democratic Solid South went Republican Red since Reconstruction. And it was caused by the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that LBJ hammered through Congress much to the chagrin of the Southern Dems who had monopolized their hold on the South ever since the Civil War. It was a precursor to the new Republican majority created by Nixon that has prevented any northern dems fom winning the presidency. I've said it once and I'll say it again; southerners and midwesterners do NOT like New England presidential candidates. The Dems are retarded for picking anyone who lives North of DC and East of Ohio. Civil Rights may have caused the backlash but by nominating snobs from New England the Dems get nowhere.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-04 @ 12:11:51

I still disagree with this "wave" theory. Tx-22, Fl-16, Pa-10, Pa-7, Oh-18, and Nc-11 are all pretty sure Democrat pickups but those seats would normally be safe Republican seats if it were not for the actions of the Republican incumbents. So there automatically is 6 seats for the Democrats. Az-8, Co-7, Ny-24, and Ia-1 are open seats leaning Democrat while Fl-13, Il-6, Mn-6, and Wi-8 are open seats that are in the toss-up category. Open seats are traditionally competitive regardless of what type of year it is. Assuming that those 8 open seats swing Democrat, which is unlikely that all will, that will give Democrats 14 seats. 2 other seats, In-8 and Nm-1 are looking like the Republican incumbents will be defeated so if this plays out Democrats will have a 1-seat majority in the House next year. For me to be convinced of this "wave" theory I will have to see a crap load of Republican incumbents defeated. Plus, in traditional terms of wave elections, where the majority party loses 50-100+ seats, I just do not see Republican losses of that magnitude materializing. Here are some of the seats mentioned that supposedly indicate a "wave" forming. I maintain again, that local issues and candidate styles are trumping this wave idea. Oh-2: Schmidt is new, bombastic, and loud. Politicians such as that do not always sit easy with voters. Fl-13: Christine Jennings is running as a moderate in an increasingly Democrat district. Plus, Congresswoman Harris has so much baggage and will go down in such a stunning defeat in the Florida Senate race that voters in that district may just be wary of conservatives. Az-01: Renzi should not have problems winning re-election. Besides that, there are allegations that Renzi introduced legislation that favored a military contracter that favors his father. Before these reports came out, Renzi was safe. Ky-04: Former Representative Lucas is running for his old seat. As RCP put it, this is an election battle between 2 incumbents. Ky-04 has elected conservative Democrats before, it would not be surprising if they did it again. Nc-11: Rep. Taylor has had many allegations of ethical improprieties regarding his finances and Dem. Shuler is running a campaign on bread and butter issues, not Iraq or Dem. talking points. Va-02: Va-02 has been competitive for a while now. Governor Kaine won this district in 2005. Plus Drake is running for her second term. It is not uncommon for first termers to be picked off as they run for a second term.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-04 @ 16:45:48

Here's an interesting twist on how to view these generic Congressional ballots. According to Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at University of California San Diego, “If the Democrats end up with 53 percent of the national vote and still don’t get a majority in the House, which is conceivable, it’s a clear sign that this Republican structural advantage has really kicked in.” According to the latest Newsweek generic poll, Democrats are at 54%

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 16:55:25

I wouldn't put much stock in any generic poll unless one party was polling at 60% or above. I do think that Republicans have set themselves up for a "Wave" though. Its not a wave in the sense of a national realignment though. Its just that a multitude of Republicans have been caught with their pants down (sometimes literally) all at the same time. Its still a race by race election. It just happens to be bad for Republicans in a lot of races.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-04 @ 17:19:40

I think it is quite telling of the Republican realignment that 53% of Americans could cast their congessional ballot for the Democrats in the district and yet Republicans still maintain control of Congress. Il-11, for example, should be a Democrat district, but gerrymandering the district enough has made it fairly reliable Republican.

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-04 @ 18:05:17

Quit whining about gerrymandering, when the dems controlled more state houses I didn't here to many complaints fron them. I also don't hear to many complaints about gerrymandered seats in blue states. Its the way the system was set up. It does two things, it makes sure the majority has enough representation to be effective, and insures the minority enough seats to have a voice. Quit whining already.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 20:30:04

My top ten Worst Gerrymandered states: 1.California 2.Texas 3.Florida 4.Georgia 5.New York 6.North Carolina 7.Pennsylvania 8.Maryland 9.Massachusetts 10.Ohio The things thats really scary is that that nine out of the ten most populated states have some of the worst gerrymandering in the country. It sorta makes sense since they also have the most seats and its harder to make a gerrymander out of only two or three seats. But its still unnerving.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-05 @ 00:50:11

When or if 53% of the population votes for one party and 47% votes for another, and the 47% party wins, how is that representing the majority? That is far from whining, that is pointing out a flaw in the system.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-05 @ 01:14:35

And another thing, I am not sure what you are referring to exactly when you say "state houses." However, state houses are largely elected on local issues and not national issues. Thats how a Democrat can be governor of Wyoming and Republicans can be governor of Massachussetts. What the hell does gerrymandering have to do with that?

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-05 @ 12:27:06

It is STATE LEGISLATURES who draw congressional districts. If you want to see truly gerrymandered seats look in those states which are red or blue which have legislatures which do not reflect that. I'm not complaining mind you. If the people of the state see fit to elect a legislature that is democrat then that legislature has the power to draw the districts and vise versa. It is one area I had previously overlooked that retains some semblance of the republic and keeps us from sliding down the chute into a Euro-trash style social democracy. Gerrymandering is an exercize of state power on the federal gov't. Good practice.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-06 @ 02:47:44

You have some interesting Democratic picks in your endorsements. Care to elaborate? I find MO and TN particularly interesting.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:29:20

McCaskill and Ford will be highly pressured to be fiscally conservative Democrats. Corker and Talent will continue to be run up the deficit and spend Republicans.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:45:20

I think TN voters are more concerned with social consevatism than fiscal conservatism but I like the way you think.

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:44:28

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I).

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