PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - ottermax () ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2006-11-03 Version:12

Prediction Map
ottermax MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
ottermax MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos8
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60-1-114216+5
Rep000-60-6819-6
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222749
Republican94049
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
573324
piepiepie

Comments

Here's the breakdown on the more important races:

Arizona: Not a big race here anymore, leans Republican, and will be won by Kyl.

California: Feinstein will win, but I have no clue by how much. I'm keeping it in the 50% range since California is not a state known for large landslides with its huge popuation.

Connecticut: This race is another race that isn't so big, but I believe it will be close in the end. Liberman will win by a tight margin.

Delaware: Boring. Carper wins.

Florida: Nelson wins.

Indiana: Question, 80 or 90 percent?

Maine: Yet again, a question on percentages, 60 or 70 percent?

Maryland: This is the third closest race. In the end, Cardin will win with the Democratic leanings in the state.

Massachusetts: Dems win.

Michigan: Dems win.

Minnesota: Dems win.

Mississippi: When's the last time they polled here? This race could be close, but alas, I say Lott wins.

Missouri: The closest race out there. I have no clue who will win, and I will go with the candidate I prefer for this prediction.

Montana: A semi-close race. It looks like Tester should win, but a big Republican turnout is possible.

Nebraska: Nelson wins.

Nevada: Ensign wins.

New Jersey: The fourth closest race, I think Menendez will win, but its impossible to tell.

New York: Clinton wins.

North Dakota: Another place lacking polls. Conrad should win, but surprises are possible.

New Mexico: I missed this one, probably because it's not at all competitive.

Ohio: A close race, but I give it to the the Democrats.

Pennsylvania: No longer very competitive, the Dems are shoo-ins.

Rhode Island: A close race that will result in a win for Whitehouse.

Tennessee: I wish this race were closer. I want Ford to win, but the polls are not favoring him. This will still be a close race, but I'm giving it to the Republicans this time.

Texas: Republican win.

Utah: Republican win.

Vermont: Independent win. Bernie Sanders rules!

Virginia: A very close race, I believe this is my second closest race, and I have the feeling that Webb will win by a close margin.

Washington: My state! Maria Cantwell will win, and McGavick has so far had a declining campaign. This race has almost no ads anymore, probably because it's just not so competitive anymore.

West Virginia: Dems win.

Wisconsin: Dems win.

Wyoming: Thomas wins.



Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 11

I changed Missouri for the Republicans and New Jersey for the Dems, due to polls, and largely because at this point either side could win, but I'm giving a slight advantage towards the incumbent.
I changed some percentages, Hawaii, Delaware, New Mexico, and Massachusetts based on polls, but I didn't change the winning parties in those states.
Not much change so far these past few months. The races are coming down to the wire, and the winners at this point are decided in most states.


Version: 1

Basic prediction, not perfect, but it uses polls and personal guesses.


Version History


Member Comments

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-03 @ 23:47:33

I think Ohio, Rhode Island, and New Jersey are probably leaners at this point. GOP is more concerned with protecting Allen and Talent.prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-04 @ 00:48:17

I still want to know if Dick Lugar is advocating a national sales tax. prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 03:55:31

Who is he? Personally I would actually prefer a sales tax to an income tax.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 243
P 2022 Senate 34/35 26/35 60/70 85.7% pie 1 1 48T305
P 2020 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 3 6 35T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 23/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 4 137T423
P 2016 President 52/56 37/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 24 119T279
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 3 224 182T760
P 2012 Senate 26/33 11/33 37/66 56.1% pie 1 246 291T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 21/52 68/104 65.4% pie 12 - 13T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 6 3 86T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 25/37 60/74 81.1% pie 5 1 45T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 53 41T103
P 2008 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 17 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 4 57T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 3 15 3T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 48/52 26/52 74/104 71.2% pie 13 - 3T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 15/49 55/98 56.1% pie 11 - 27T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 174 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 12 4 20T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 15 3 58T312
P 2004 President 52/56 27/56 79/112 70.5% pie 2 6 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 715/774 470/774 1185/1548 76.6% pie


Back to 2006 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved