PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - padfoot714 (D-OH) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-04 Version:12

Prediction Map
padfoot714 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
padfoot714 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos1
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60-1-114216+5
Rep000-60-6819-6
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222749
Republican94049
Independent202
pie

Comments

MT-this one is tightening at the last second so its only leans now.

MO-McCaskill seems to be riding a small wave so I'm being bold with a lean Dem here.

NJ & MD- These are both close but they have been for a while with little change so I'm not as convinced that these are actually going to be takeovers.

VA-Webb appears to finally be moving up but the polls here have been back and forth for a week. I think the winner gets decided by a few hundred votes. Its gonna be the closest of them all.

Here's my house prediction based heavily on analysis on RCP and CQ Politics. All districts listed are either in the RCP's top 50 and/or rated as highly competive by CQP.

Guaranteed Democratic gains: AZ-8, CO-7, FL-16, IN-8, OH-18, PA-10, PA-7, TX-22 (Dems hold IA-3, VT-AL, GA-8).

Likely Dem Gains: IA-1, NC-11, NM-1, NY-24, (Dems hold IL-8 and GA-12)

Lean Dem/tossup: CT-4, CT-5, FL-13, FL-22, IN-2, IN-9, NH-2, NY-20, OH-15, PA-6, WI-8

Lean Rep/tossup: AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CT-2, ID-1, IL-6, KY-3, NY-26, OH-1, OH-2, PA-8, WA-8,

Likely Rep. Holds: CA-4, CO-4, KY-4, MN-1, MN-6, NV-2, NV-3, NY-29, NY-19, WY-AL

Garanteed Rep. Holds: CA-50, NE-1, NE-3, NJ-7, NY-25, VA-2, PA-4

Final result: D-226 R-209


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 05:02:36

I alphabetized my House districts and did a little switching around. Several things hurting Republicans right now besides Bush and Iraq:
#1 Scandals: virtually every state is having some sort of Republican scandal. Its caused a myriad of resignations and put safe Republican districts directly into Democratic hands.

#2Voter disgust/Anti-incumbent: This is a combo of the low congressional approval and "scandal spillover." Examples are 50-50 districts or slight Rep districts near or close to scandals like OH-15, FL-13, the PA districts, ect.

#3High polling Dems at top of Gov/Sen ticket: Dems are doing well in the Gov. races as well as some Sen races. This will help Dem House candidates in OH, CO, PA, NY, NM, and maybe FL, MN, and AZ.

Last Edit: 2006-11-04 @ 05:32:26
prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-05 @ 12:58:47

You really have lost it. Surrender will not prove as popular an option in Iraq as you think it will.

Scandals in every state? Bit of hyperbole don't you think? Not to mention the fact that you seem to gloss over scandals like Blagovich, Mollohan, Jefferson, Ried, Jesse jackson Jr., Menendez, and Barak Obama's apparent tise to the same convicted criminal as Blagovich. How do THEY work against the GOP?

Voter disgust? Evidently tou have failed to see the washington Post's new poll released this morning. Generic ballot is now 52-46, Bodes well for GOP. Quick libs, get desperate, call the washington poast a bunch of GOP hacks. LOL.

I notice you did not include MI, IA, MD, and OR on your list of "high polling dem's at the top of tickets. Including MN in this group is a joke. Although you could have listed KY and that would have been true enough.
prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-05 @ 16:00:09

Most people in the real world view Iraq as unwinable so I think a phased withdrawl is actually the MOST popular option right now. "Stay the Course" certainly isn't and thats what Bush has been selling at all his stops across the country. Way to kill your chances there dumbass.

OK lets list the states with scandals:
FL, ID, IL, LA, MT, NV, NJ, OH, PA, TX, VA, WV, WY. Maybe not all the states but I still think 13 is pretty high and I may have missed a few.

As for the Dems the only ones having any affect are Blago and Menendez. No one has reported on Mollohan since April, Reid has been swept under the rug, Jackson is running in a district where he took 88% last year, Jefferson will get booted in the primary by another Dem, and Barak Obama is not up for re-election.

Blago and Kean are running in states where politics=corruption and both are still ahead in the polls but not by as much as they should be in typically blue states.

"Including MN in this group is a joke." apparently you haven't seen the polls showing Klobuchar with a TWENTY POINT LEAD! If thats not high polling I don't know what is.
prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-05 @ 22:12:47

You may want to rethink RI. Latest Mason Dixon has it teid. it would also appear your voter disafection is evaporating. Mason Dixon, Pew, and Galup have the generic balot at 6 pts. ROFL. prediction Map

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:23:59

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I).prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:26:10

If I could suggest something cm04g, I would switch Missouri and Virginia. Talent appears to have a much better chance than Allen right now. prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:18:15

If there is indeed a tie there will likely be joint leadership in the Senate. Even though Cheney is technically the tiebreaker many things depend on two-thirds vote or a minimum of 60 votes. Also, if the Dems have a controlling majority in the House, look for moderates (especially Snowe and Collins in Maine and Chafee in RI if he survivies) to be pressured to jump the aisle and become Democrats. I don't think its likely that moderate Dems will switch sides given the current House projections.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 Senate 30/35 20/35 50/70 71.4% pie 1 88 274T423
P 2016 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 1 1 194T678
P 2014 Senate 29/36 19/36 48/72 66.7% pie 3 49 240T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 14/36 41/72 56.9% pie 1 454 224T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 10 98T153
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 6 3 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 6 3 56T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 3 14 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 32/52 7/52 39/104 37.5% pie 14 - 111T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 2 107 37T106
P 2010 Senate 36/37 26/37 62/74 83.8% pie 17 2 21T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 10 2 29T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 25 56T103
P 2008 President 53/56 48/56 101/112 90.2% pie 52 0 6T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 27/33 60/66 90.9% pie 22 6 1T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 9 14 27T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 23/52 65/104 62.5% pie 21 - 28T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 36/49 19/49 55/98 56.1% pie 19 - 27T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 6 164 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 13 2 46T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 14 1 10T312
Aggregate Predictions 589/670 397/670 986/1340 73.6% pie


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