This is assuming Senator Lieberman not only wins re-election (which is all but assured), but also that he redeclares himself a Democrat once he is re-elected.

With the one-two punch delivered by the ongoing war in Iraq, plus the many scandals wrought by the GOP-controlled Congress, I previously predicted that Democrats would gain seats in both houses of Congress, but not actually take either one. The gross mishandling of the Mark Foley scandal by the congressional Republican leadership has tipped the scales for me. It is highly unlikely that the story will be going away anytime soon...that's not even mentioning the new book coming out this month (by Bob Woodward) that illustrates the sheer ineptitude and blindness of the Bush administration in handling the reconstruction of Iraq in the immediate aftermath of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime...keeping the Iraq War in the spotlight, and away from the war on terrorism.

I now predict that Democrats will win a narrow majority in the Senate, while also winning a majority in the House, in which they will have upwards of 225 seats, with Republicans holding 210. Keep in mind that the number of House seats held by either party is up for debate, but the fundamental fact remains that Democrats will gain contrl of both houses of Congress.

This prediction is made with the expectation that Ned Lamont will win not just the primary but also the general election in a three-way race with Joe Lieberman running as the independent candidate. The antiwar wing of the Democratic Party is showing more strength than I originally anticipated, and as such I have altered my earlier predictions to reflect this new reality. As it is, however, it will not be enough to carry Democrats to victory in the Senate -Republicans will maintain control, though only barely. The same applies to the House of Representatives.

• View Frodo Gubernatorial Predictions
• View Frodo Senatorial Endorsements
• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Senatorial Prediction Home
• Update My 2006 Senatorial Prediction Map