Final prediction, what I think will actually happen w/no partisan bias

Close my last prediction, I feel very confident in this one given history and recent trends

To my Democratic friends:

Rick Santorum will win, but if for some reason he doesn't Bob Casey will be the next Ben Nelson or more conservative

Flipped MD

Based on my forum predictions

Post primary:
Was counting on Mfume/Laffey, got Chafee/Cardin

Adjusted according to show GOP holding RI and not gaining MD. But don't count Steele out yet.

Tweaked percentages and changed OH for the moment given DeWine hasn't done anything to help himself.

Changes:
MT back to GOP b/c Tester can't capitalize on anything

NJ lean GOP because Menedez is engulfed in scandal and Kean is on the up

All that and I got rid of some tossups

OH Lean R>Tossup (at the request of many)
MI Lean D>Tossup (polls show Bouchard is closing the door)

Changes:

VT from Ind Lean to Dem Toss. Sanders has filed to run as a Democrat, but don't count Tarrant out yet.

CT from Strong Dem to Ind Toss, Lieberman wins by the slimmest of margins.

Possible changes for next map:
MD from GOP to Dem, but I still want to wait for the primary

Idk about what other changes could come, but certainly some big things are about to happen.

Like w/the governor's race ratings, I will now have a senate one, please feel free to comment:

Extremely Vulnerable
1. MT
2. NJ
3. MD
4. PA
5. RI
6. MO

Mildly Vulnerable
7. OH
8. WA
9. MN
10. NE
11. TN
12. VA

Slightly Vulnerable
13. NV
14. AZ
15. MI
16. VT

NON-COMPETITVE
17. WI
18. FL
19. HI
20. TX
21. ND
22. MS
23. NM
24. NY
25. WV
26. UT
27. WY
28. DE
29. CA
30. ME
31. MA
32. IN

CT: Not included, if Joe Lieberman wins primary, the race is probably between ME and MA if Lieberman wins, Extremely Vulnerable if Lamont wins.

Not a lot of changes but one huge one:

Santorum now predicted to hold seats.
We all remember Ron Klink? Bob Casey is Ron Klink. His DINOness will destroy him in the end and a third party candidate will cut him to pieces and take away some of his base.

Didn't make sense last numbers so changed prediction:

Final numbers:
Santorum 44%
Casey 43%
Green 9%
Other 4%

Made PA and RI tossups

VT:
Went to VT last week and was suprised at the support for Tarrant in the areas around Rutland. I still think Sanders will win, but the support for Tarrant was apparent than that for Sanders. Wouldn't be suprised to see Tarrant squeak it out.

NJ:
Corzine shutting down the state government all but assures a Kean victory, believe me the local news in NJ showed every picket and suprisingly portrayed it as all the Democrats fault.

Issues #2:
I don't know her name, look it up, but Corzine's AG is ridiculously corrupt. She is in trouble latest for letting her boyfriend slide on a crime, and I believe it was a felony. She is the most corrupt public official in NJ even above Corzine. She is almost as bad as our former HS Director aka McGreevey's lover.

Who wanted this woman as the AG? Well, it's coming out now that Corzine was pushed to appoint this woman by none other than....

Bob Menedez

More Vulnerability Rating:

GOP:
1.) PA
2.) MT
3.) RI
4.) MO
5.) OH

DEM:
1.) NJ
2.) MD
3.) MN
4.) WA
5.) NE
6.) VT (I)

Seriously considering switching MN to Dem Hold and WA to GOP Gain. Cantwell keeps polling worse and even that inflated poll aside, Klobuchar better.

While you may think I'm partisan look some of the other posters, which cnbpjb, a frequent poster, comes to mind. He will have you believe this will be a great year for Dems and back this up w/some misleading facts. But face this:

I was checking his 2004 record and here's what he predicted Nov. 1, 2004:

Kerry 366 - Bush 172
ACTUAL:
Bush 286 - Kerry 252

That's mean he underestimated by 114 EV!!

Senate:
Dems 54 GOP 45 Ind 1
Actual:
GOP 55 Dem 44 INd 1

He underestimated the GOP by 10 seats!

Use that math this year and if your predicting method holds true, the GOP will gain 3 three seats!

That makes me feel more confident.

For those of you who think my map is far too Republican, I remind you that the last election and the last midterm were supposed to cause problems for the incumbents. What happened? Karl Rove pulled some tricks out of his sleeves and the GOP gained seats. This is not a prediction based on polls now, it is a prediction of how the election will turn out.

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