Date of Prediction: 2006-11-05 Version:13
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 66)
Comments
MT and RI-These races appear to be moving to the right at the last minute but I'm not sure if its too little to late. They remain Dem pickups but both are leaners now. This could change in the next day or so though.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 12 MT-this one is tightening at the last second so its only leans now. Version: 11 TN-I think Ford is done. He might have had a shot but he took the offense over the top. Version: 10 Wow, I am absolutely shocked by the newest polls (today is 10/30) coming out of Virginia. I thought the LA Times poll from last week was just a fluke in a long line of polls with Allen ahead but apparently I was wrong. I still think Allen will win but if Webb keeps up the current numbers I may have to flip this race. I find these polls especially jarring becuase both show Webb at or above 50%. That's something Allen hasn't been able to do in two consecutive polls since June. Also this is the first time Webb has been above 48%. Maybe people actually thought Webb's book was good (LOL). Version: 9 I fiddled with some percentages in a couple of races. Changed Tennessee to leans Republican and Virginia to Safe Republican. With only two weeks left I don't think Webb can pull it off. Allen has only been behind in one poll and he's within the margin of error. I think his 2008 chances are shot to shit but he'll remain a Senator. In TN this whole Playboy thing is not going over well for Ford in a socially conservative state even if it does affirm his love for football and girls. Plus, Corker has done some reorganizing that has given his campaign some new breath. In Missouri, things remain unchanged. Version: 8 Many TV stations in Ohio are refusing to air the most recent add for DeWine sponsored by the Republican Party. The add claims Brown didn't pay some taxes in 1992. The truth is he was late by about two years. Seeing as this ad isn't being shown anywhere though i doubt it will have any affect and all that money is wasted. Kean's corruption campaign agaisnt Menendez seems to have run its course in NJ as Menendez has led in the polls for the last few weeks. Tennessee and Missouri remain tossups although a recent Blunder by Ford may cause him to lose momentum. Virginia is emerging as a much closer race after recent polls but Allen continues to lead in all of them which indicates that the margin of error is in his favor. Until I see a poll with Webb in the lead this race will remain strong or lean Republican. Maryland is becoming a tighter race but there is still a Democratic edge. Everything else seems pretty much decided already but we stil have two weeks left so who knows what will happen. Version: 7 According to the NY Times the GOP has recently decided to cut its losses everywhere but Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. They also are still holding out hope for New Jersey. In response to this I have moved Ohio and Rhode Island to strongly Democratic and Virginia to strongly Republican. It is clear from the polls that DeWine and Chafee were already struggling and without the support of the national party they will continue to flounder. With Allen already ahead in all polls I've seen this narrower focus should help him hold onto his lead. For now New Jersey, Tennessee, and Missouri will remain the same on my map but they may move to the Republican column in the coming days if this refocus has the desired affect for the GOP. Since Maryland was not mentioned in any of this I have moved it into the strongly Democratic category as well. Without the full attention of the GOP it will be hard for them to overtake a state that is so strongly Democratic, especially in this climate. Version: 6 LAmont lost his steam after the primary and has been losing ground since so Connecticut is basically in the bag for Lieberman. Menendez seems to be on the rebound in New Jersey but its not a strong lead yet. Other than that I only changed a few percentages that needed updating. Version: 5 New Jersey is currently going Democratic so I switched back to Democrats holding onto it. However, this race keeps flip flopping so I am leaving it in the Toss up category. Version: 4 My confidence in Missouri is very very low at this time. It is a complete tossup either way. If the winds in Tennessee and New Jersey continue blowing in the same directions they are now I'll switch them to leans democrat and republican respectively.
Version History Member Comments By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-12-05 @ 06:06:50 User's Predictions
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