Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:20

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	0	+5	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-5	9	1	10	-5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	27	48
Republican	10	40	50
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	32	22

Comments

Final prediction: 50 Reps, 48 Dems, 2 Ind. Reps keep control of the Senate with Cheney the tiebreaker.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 16

The races to watch the next 12 days:

MO: May be the closest senate race of them all. I give the edge to Talent because of funds in the bank and that MO is conservative on cultural issues. Talent by 1-2%.

NJ: I think Kean had his chance, but Menendez has the money edge. Menendez by 5.

VA: The m-word got Allen into some trouble, but not enough to sway the election. Allen by 4.

RI: Whitehouse has had a good campaign, and has hammered home the issue of the national Republicans coming into RI to save Chaffee in the primary. Whitehouse by 4.

TN: Corker has come back, and Ford has stumbled - I think his raiding of Corker's press conference hurt more than helped. And let's face facts - can an African-American win in a southern state? I say, regretfully, no. Corker by 6.

MT: Unless Burns reaches 47-48% in polls, he's done. Tester by 6.

OH: Brown by 7-8.

PA: Casey by 8.

New Senate is election were today: 51 R, 47 D, 2 I.

Version: 15

Giving MO to Talent right now, since he has the edge in cash reserves. Subject to change.

Version: 13

TN back to lean Rep, based on new SurveyUSA poll.

Version: 12

Changed TN to slight lean Dem, based on recent polls: TN, MO and NJ the races to watch election night.

Version: 11

Moved TN to tossup, otherwise no significant change.

Version: 5

MT to Lean Dem, OH to Lean GOP.

Version: 2

Two changes based on recent polls: OH - DeWine appears to be solidifying a lead recently, so Rep for now; NJ - The incumbant holds a four-point lead in latest Rasmussen poll, so Dem for now (though I think this may be the most competitive senate race this fall).

Version: 1

Easiest pickup for Dems: PA. Santorum is too out of the mainstream. Dems also stand a good chance in MT with the unpopular Burns fading. MO too. Best hope for Reps is in NJ, and I rate that as a Rep pickup with the Kean name going a long way there - Jerseyites haven't warmed to their new senator. Pickup of 3 seats for Dems at this time.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	11	74	T	115
2022 Senate	33/35	26/35	59/70	84.3%	7	4	69	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	24/36	58/72	80.6%	5	1	104	T	272
2020 President	53/56	39/56	92/112	82.1%	31	6	307	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	13	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	7	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	2	8	104	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	15	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	21/36	53/72	73.6%	14	2	164	T	372
2016 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%	64	1	325	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	18/34	50/68	73.5%	15	0	89	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	6/12	15/24	62.5%	10	2	47	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	2	9	8	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	23/36	57/72	79.2%	11	1	82	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	10	1	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	1	17	T	153
2012 President	54/56	40/56	94/112	83.9%	34	2	367	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	16/33	47/66	71.2%	13	2	164	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	6	2	51	T	228
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	9	0	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	9	0	17	T	312
2008 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	13	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%	4	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	4	1	27	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	20	1	65	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	19/36	54/72	75.0%	16	1	81	T	312
2004 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	35	3	14	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	775/828	525/828	1300/1656	78.5%

Links

Back to 2006 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home