This is my final prediction for the Senate elections. The state predictions are the same as last time, the only differences are in margins and confidence. I predict the Senate breaks 52-48 Republican.

Ohio is gone. Montana is swinging back towards the GOP. The fact that Tester thinks people who make $250 grand a year are middle class has not gone over well in rural Montana. Burns has the momentum and I think he has the positioning to win a narrow victory. Several of these races will come down to the wire and may be decided by razor thin margins.

Due to a massive advertising campaign in Ohio to save Representatives Pryce, Schmidt, Chabot, and Tiberi....and also Senator DeWine...I think he just may pull out a squeaker. Other than that, I just fiddled with confidence and percentages. Maryland is the new state to watch, as Lieutenant Governor Steele is rapidly closing the gap in these final weeks. Whether it will be enough to push him over the top remains to be seen.

I'm giving Rhode Island to the Dems as a pickup and taking New Jersey away from the Republicans. I'm also slowly giving up on Washington, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Once again, trends favor the Dems this year.

Sadly, I think Burns' goose is cooked. And I have a sneaking suspicion that DeWine's alienation of his Conservative base, coupled with the Ohio GOP's issues will be his undoing there. Corker, Allen, Chafee, and Talent will all win by unimpressive margins; but I still believe they will win. Menendez will lose New Jersey for the Dems. Cantwell, Klobuchar, Cardin, and Stabenow will all probably win, but the races are still definitely worth watching and upsets could easily occur, especially regarding Cardin and Cantwell.

Forced to give Washington and Minnesota back to the Dems, as trends continue to swing their way there...New Jersey looks better for the Reps all the time as Bob Menendez is now the subject of a federal corruption probe. Pennsylvania still looks to flip to the Dems. Looks like things will come close to breaking even.

Lieberman will win the Connecticut race. Other than than, I just fiddled with the totals and the confidence. I almost tipped Minnesota back to the Dems. We'll see where things stand in a few weeks.

Some minor tweaking to these maps...and also some shifts. I don't think the Republicans will pick up Maryland and I don't think the Democrats will pick up Montana...but I do think that Maria Cantwell is broke and polls show her very weak in Washington, so I do think the Republicans might just her seat...in spite of the Democratic tilt to the state. In any event, we'll see where things stand in a few months. It's not even July yet and elections are not until November...that's an eternity in politics.

A preliminary look at the Senate. As the election draws closer, a more likely scenario than the *3 and -2 seats for the Republicans, is a -2 and +1 situation. Republicans are safer in the Senate than most pundits give them credit for. It's the house that will be in contention...not so much as a possibility of losing...but as a possibility of it being VERY close after November.

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