Final prediction, so I'm doing away with toss ups.

TN - Corker's picking up the momentum again. Too bad. At least Ford was able to divert some money from the RSCC. Toss Up R to Lean R

MT - Dammit, Burns is actually making a comeback. Montana should be asked to leave the union if they actually reelect that guy. Lean D to Toss Up D

Changes:

VA - Webb is reminding me of Kaine. I'm willing to call it for him now. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

NJ - Menendez isn't in so much trouble anymore. Toss Up D to Lean D

AZ - Still little doubt Kyl will win, but it might get close. Strong R to Lean R

Changes:

TN - Corker's starting to pick up steam again. It'll be close but sadly I think Corker will pull it off, now at least. Toss Up D to Toss Up R

CT - It sucks, but Lieberman's just too far ahead to be anything but strong. Lean I to Strong I

PA - Casey is now in Strong territory again. I'd dare to say that now it's over. Lean D to Strong D

RI - Whitehouse is clearly ahead. Toss Up D to Lean D

NJ - I'm flipping it back to Menendez. Mason-Dixon has him up, and while the undecideds are still high, Republicans can't count on them in NJ. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

Changes:

TN - Ford is leading and he's making this a race. His campaign is great, and Corker is horrible. It's a bit of a hunch, but I'm giving this one to Ford now. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

NJ - I hope the undecideds break heavily for Menendez, and I wouldn't be shocked if they do, but right now the polls show Kean with the edge. Hopefully the DSCC can destroy Kean over the war. Toss Up D to Toss Up R

VA - It's a race again. Lean R to Toss Up R

MN - Kennedy is done. Done done done. Finished. Lean D to Strong D

WA - Looks like McGavick had more than a few skeletons in his closet. They're out, and whatever small chance he had is now none. Lean D to Strong D.

Changes:

CT - Unfortunately Lieberman has a clear lead in polls and it's over 50%. I won't rule Lamont out now, but I can't call it a toss up anymore, or believe that Lieberman will get below 50%. Toss Up I >40% to Toss Up I >50%

MT - Tester's back being way up and Burns is still being stupid. Unless Tester managers to seriously blow things, this race is his. Toss Up D to Lean D

VA - Sadly now Allen is making a comeback. Hopefully Webb can stunt this, but probably not. Toss Up R to Lean R

Virginia - While Webb hasn't led in a (credible) poll yet, things are just too hot to have this race as leaning Allen now, especially since he's below 50. There should be some designation between tossup and lean for it. But there's not, so I'm going to call it a toss up. Lean R to Toss Up R

Changes:

Tennessee - Polls are close enough now, this is a tossup. I'm quite pleased. Lean R to Toss Up R

Ohio - I must say I'm pleased with Brown. He's doing much better than I expected, and has a clear edge now. Toss up D to Lean D.

Changes:

Pennsylvania - Alright, the polls are now close enough to make this one Lean D. I'd still bet on Casey getting over 52% though. Strong D to Lean D

Nevada - Ensign will win no doubt, but he won't get 60%. I was a bit overestimating him originally. R > 50%

Missouri - This is the toughest race to call. I'm really going on just gut with every prediction. Right now I'm leaning toward McCaskill. I have little doubt it'll be the closest one in the country too. Toss Up R to Toss Up D

Changes:

Connecticut - I'm pretty damn confident now that Lamont is going to win on Tuesday. Unfortunately, Lieberman will be favored in his independent campaign. It's a toss-up, but for now I'll have to call it for Lieberman. Toss-Up I

Minnesota - I wanted to take a modest approach in my home state, but with Kennedy being killed in all polls, and the media hammering him hard, I can't say this is really a toss-up anyway.Fact is, it is definitely Klobuchar's to lose. Lean D

Changes:

Rhode Island - Chafee has been behind in enough polls now to say he's now in danger in both the primary AND general. Toss-Up D

Montana - Tester still has a clear advantage, but it's tightened. This is back to being a real toss-up rather than the weird gray status I had it before. Toss-Up D

Changes:

Missouri - Much as I hate to admit it, Talent seems to be improving, and his ratings aren't fantastic, but aren't in Burns or Santorum territory. While Bush and Blunt should drag him down, the match-up polls have been improving, and that might not be enough. Toss-Up R

Connecticut - Moved to Lean D just due to the possiblity of Lieberman as an indepenent. Lean D

Ohio - DeWine is very weak now, Brown is much better candidate than originally thought it appears and the "Hackett Factor" has run its course. And Strickland should provide some coattails. Right now I'd have to bet on Brown. Toss-Up D

Montana - I really wish there was a designation between Toss-Up and Lean for this. While calling it Lean D seems too much, Burns is so weak right now and Tester has so much momentum I really can't call it a tossup. Any evidence of Burns making gains will likely result in reverting to toss up though. Lean D

Washington - I don't think Cantwell will have much problems winning, but the race is just a bit too close to call Strong. Lean D

Virginia - Allen is still heavily favored, but not as much as originally thought it appears. Lean R

Pennsylvania - I had previously made this Lean D just because it doesn't seem right putting an incumbent losing at Strong. But Casey is doing much better in polls than some incumbents labeled Strong, and I don't even believe this race will be close. If it appears Santorum is making some real gains (not polling variations), it'll be back to Lean D, but right now I don't see any reason to call this anything other than Strong. Strong D.

Rhode Island - Chaffee's lead isn't that strong after all. I'd still bet on him winning now and have little doubt he'll beat Laffey (though it wouldn't shock me if he lost in which case this goes Strong D), but I can't call it Lean. Toss-Up R

just tweaking the percentages a bit. Until Lugar gets an opponent, he's going to be at least >80%

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