PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - RepubforDem (R-IL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:14

Prediction Map
RepubforDem MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
RepubforDem MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
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33 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages

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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:39:27

Here it is, my last prediction. *sigh* With the volatility going right now I am having trouble in picking confidence in most races. Republicans are closing the gaps but I feel it will be just like Gerald Ford's 1976 re-election and Hubert Humphrey's 1968 election, where they closed the gap considerably, almost won, but didn't get enough votes to squeeze by. Republican GOTV is in high force, I already received two phone calls tonight from Republicans to remind me to vote. And I live in "liberal" Illinois.
I am least confident about the Missouri race. McCaskill is having trouble mobilizing her base in urban St. Louis and Kansas City. That being said, I am predicting she will win by a hair with moderate and independant votes.
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 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:46:30

Safe Dem in VA. I'm not willing to take that plunge but power to you.prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:48:21

I am using the Kaine-Kilgore model for that race at the moment. I maybe proven wrong. Either way, I don't care much for either candidate in VA. prediction Map

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:44:57

My final prediction is Pelosi will indeed be the next Speaker. The GOP will go down into defeat and Vice president Dick Cheney will break the tie (50R-48D-2I). prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 02:07:36

If Democrats win the House, they will probably only win about 20 seats. And I am being very liberal about that estimate. This is not a "wave" election. This is an election mainly focused on local issues and a number of Republicans are carrying negative baggage right now. Democrats can win the Senate, but only by a one seat margin at most. If Democrats win the Senate, watch out for 2008. Their best hopes for a pickup is Wayne Allard's seat in Colorado at the moment. Plus they will be defending a number of conservative house districts.

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 02:08:39
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 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 04:08:53

I know its jumping the gun buts here's my hot races to watch in 2008. I think the Dems are actually in good shape to pick up some seats in 2008. They only have 11 to defend and about half are in safe Dem states. Also, if they run a strong pres. campaign there could be some good coattails to ride.

Democratic targets:
If Pete Domenici (R-NM) retires that could be a big target for the Dems. Even if he doesn't he only netted 51% in his last election so this race could still be very competitive.
Norm Coleman (R-MN) looks like another attractive Dem target. Judging by his history in the Senate he could be construed as too conservative for a traditionally Dem state. Even though MN has been trending Rep (I think) its still just left of center and Coleman's record is fairly conservative. Also there is the revenge factor since Coleman left the DFL and went on to defeat former VP Walter Mondale for his current seat.
Susan Collins (R-ME) could get into trouble b/c she promised not to run for a third consecutive term back in '96 when she was first elected. It'll be interesting to see if her popularity remains the same when she breaks that promise.
Although John Warner (R-VA) will be 81 in 2008 and is one of the most likely retirees. With the demographic changes in northern VA this could be a competitive race especially by 2008. A win for Webb in 2006 could set the stage for another Dem win in 2008 or a Webb loss would provide Dems with a ready made candidate next time around. With the Other VA Warner out of the presidential race he could also pose a threat.

Republican targets: Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) may retire and provide a competitive race in WV where Bush cruised to easy victores.

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 04:17:41
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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 04:59:50

The Minnesota race in 2008 might be a tossup, depending on who the Dems run.

Virginia is difficult since John Warner will win even at 81 or whatever age he is.. He is a great Senator.

Furthermore, Rockefeller is a safe Democrat seat. Unless a really crappy Democrat runs in his place.

Last, Republicans have proven true that they do not believe in term limits. Look at the number of 1994 Republicans who are running for re-election this year that promised they would not serve more than 12 years. So many hypocrites.
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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 14:32:44

FBI Investigating Va. Voter Calls
Nov 07 2:15 PM US/Eastern

Associated Press Writer


The FBI is investigating complaints about attempts to intimidate Virginia voters amid the hard-fought U.S. Senate race between GOP Sen. George Allen and Democratic challenger Jim Webb, the State Board of Elections said Tuesday.
Jean Jensen, secretary of the Board of Elections, said her office had forwarded several reports of phone calls to voters apparently aimed at misleading them into not voting or going to the wrong polling place.

"If something is going on that worries and alarms voters enough that I'm contacted to look into it, I have a responsibility to do that," she said.

A call left for the FBI Tuesday afternoon wasn't immediately returned.

Voters in the cities of Covington, Hampton and Colonial Heights and the counties of Accomack, Northampton and Fairfax reported getting deceptive telephone calls in the days before the election informing them that their voting places had changed, when they had not, Jensen said.

In Arlington County, resident Timothy Daly said he got a phone message Sunday, said to be from the "Virginia Elections Commission," telling him he was registered to vote in New York so he couldn't vote in Virginia.

"If you do show up, you will be charged criminally," said the message, the text of which appeared on Daly's affidavit to the Board of Elections.

Lawrence Peter Baumann, a Northampton County resident, said in his affidavit that he got a call on Friday from a woman claiming to be from the Webb campaign. He said he assured her he planned to vote for Webb.

"She then told me that I would be voting at West Reed Street. I told her that there was no street by that name and that if she was supposed to be helping Webb, she needed to give correct information," Baumann's affidavit said. "She never gave me the correct precinct and never offered to get back to me with my correct precinct."

Chris LaCivita, a senior consultant to the Allen campaign, said the calls weren't originating from the GOP.

"And it's sure as heck not coming from the Allen campaign," LaCivita said. "I doubt the validity of them, quite frankly."

The Webb campaign said in a statement that the calls were intended to confuse and discourage Virginians from voting.

"We've seen this tactic before and it is about time the Republicans learned that it will not work," said Jay B. Myerson, general counsel of the Democratic Party of Virginia.

New Mexico Democrats filed similar complaints in court, accusing GOP callers there of providing voters with incorrect information on polling locations in Albuquerque. State District Judge Richard Knowles on Monday, however, refused prohibit Republicans from calling voters.

Knowles said such mistakes shouldn't be made but he didn't believe the state's Republican volunteers had made a concerted effort to disenfranchise voters.

"I would like both sides to be careful," Knowles warned the parties. "If it continues to happen, if I have to shut down phone banks I will."
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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 15:14:45

Yeah, I saw that article. Excuse my language, but this is disgusting, filthy shit on the part of the robocallers.prediction Map

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 14 1 156T465
P 2006 Governor 31/36 18/36 49/72 68.1% pie 10 0 147T312
Aggregate Predictions 64/69 35/69 99/138 71.7% pie

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