Have to go by the individual races...and I think the Democrats actually take it. But it's close...

Moved Tennessee to lean, but I'm keeping Maryland as lean too. Beyond that, it seems to be down to Virginia, Missouri and Montana now. They're all very, very hard to call. Right now I say Montana sticks with Burns thanks to his momentum and the others swing Democrat, but I really have no idea.

Ohio is on the cusp of solid (as is Arizona). Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee are the only tossups now.

Reduced the number of tossups and leans in favour of solids as we're approaching election day. Michigan is close to solid, Virginia is close to tossup.

Just flipped Wyoming down to 60% in light of the recent MD-poll. :P Very minor change...

Changing CT to lean (it looks like a bare lean), Montana to lean (it is an almost equally bare lean) and Rhode Island to Democrat (all these polls can't be ignored).

Flipped some of the percentages around.

Finally changed Ohio to tossup-Dem. The polls became too over-bearing for me. I also flipped Tennessee to tossup, it fits better in that category than lean now, although it is really in between.

Conneticut is of course something of a tossup even though Lieberman definitely retains the edge.

I might switch Rhode Island and Missouri to Democrat soon if more credible polls emerge from there. Same goes for Ohio actually. But I'm not ready to do it just yet.

Lieberman looks more likely than not to lose the primary, but he still takes it as an independent.

Finally flipped Montana to Democrats now, the latest Mason-Dixon poll refutes my suspicion of Burns catching up. The latest approval rating for Burns was also pretty bad. Finally, looking at sub-groups it seemed to me like those with highest approval of him were those least likely to vote or follow the news (youths, blacks, etc) which means that he could slide further by election day.

Changed some shadings, that's all. If a few more polls come in as confirmation, I might switch New Jersey to GOP and Montana to Democrat. But not yet.

TO Jerusalem, eh? There is not a single poll showing Brown up since February. The most reliable pollster in the US, more or less, is Mason-Dixon and what did they show? Yeah, that's right DeWine by 11. THat's what I call a long-shot. Burns still has the incumbency and Rasmussen shows him gaining about 2.5% per month since February. I smell a come-back. If the Democrats couldn't lock up this race when the scandals were prime time news, why would they do it in 6 months?

This is how I predict it right now. Pennsylvania is still not in the bag, but it's lean Democrat. MO, MN, NJ and MT could go either way. RI, MI, OH are long-shots that are not totally out of the question yet.

Version 2: Changed the shading of Vermont. Didn't realize Rasumussen had him at 70%...

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