PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - Gustaf (D-SWE) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:13

Prediction Map
Gustaf MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Gustaf MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos3
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60-1-114216+5
Rep000-60-6819-6
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222749
Republican94049
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
543321
piepiepie

Comments

Have to go by the individual races...and I think the Democrats actually take it. But it's close...


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 12

Moved Tennessee to lean, but I'm keeping Maryland as lean too. Beyond that, it seems to be down to Virginia, Missouri and Montana now. They're all very, very hard to call. Right now I say Montana sticks with Burns thanks to his momentum and the others swing Democrat, but I really have no idea.


Version: 11

Ohio is on the cusp of solid (as is Arizona). Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee are the only tossups now.


Version: 10

Reduced the number of tossups and leans in favour of solids as we're approaching election day. Michigan is close to solid, Virginia is close to tossup.


Version: 9

Just flipped Wyoming down to 60% in light of the recent MD-poll. :P Very minor change...


Version: 8

Changing CT to lean (it looks like a bare lean), Montana to lean (it is an almost equally bare lean) and Rhode Island to Democrat (all these polls can't be ignored).


Version: 7

Flipped some of the percentages around.


Version: 6

Finally changed Ohio to tossup-Dem. The polls became too over-bearing for me. I also flipped Tennessee to tossup, it fits better in that category than lean now, although it is really in between.


Version: 5

Conneticut is of course something of a tossup even though Lieberman definitely retains the edge.

I might switch Rhode Island and Missouri to Democrat soon if more credible polls emerge from there. Same goes for Ohio actually. But I'm not ready to do it just yet.


Version: 4

Lieberman looks more likely than not to lose the primary, but he still takes it as an independent.


Version: 3

Finally flipped Montana to Democrats now, the latest Mason-Dixon poll refutes my suspicion of Burns catching up. The latest approval rating for Burns was also pretty bad. Finally, looking at sub-groups it seemed to me like those with highest approval of him were those least likely to vote or follow the news (youths, blacks, etc) which means that he could slide further by election day.


Version: 2

Changed some shadings, that's all. If a few more polls come in as confirmation, I might switch New Jersey to GOP and Montana to Democrat. But not yet.

TO Jerusalem, eh? There is not a single poll showing Brown up since February. The most reliable pollster in the US, more or less, is Mason-Dixon and what did they show? Yeah, that's right DeWine by 11. THat's what I call a long-shot. Burns still has the incumbency and Rasmussen shows him gaining about 2.5% per month since February. I smell a come-back. If the Democrats couldn't lock up this race when the scandals were prime time news, why would they do it in 6 months?


Version: 1

This is how I predict it right now. Pennsylvania is still not in the bag, but it's lean Democrat. MO, MN, NJ and MT could go either way. RI, MI, OH are long-shots that are not totally out of the question yet.

Version 2: Changed the shading of Vermont. Didn't realize Rasumussen had him at 70%...


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 570
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 329
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 224
P 2019 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 4 130T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 21/35 54/70 77.1% pie 5 1 106T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 3 3 6T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 50 1T149
P 2016 President 50/56 32/56 82/112 73.2% pie 3 1 149T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 20/34 52/68 76.5% pie 2 1 35T362
P 2016 Governor 8/12 5/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 1 119T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 5 2 99T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 2 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 1 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 11 3 47T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 15/33 45/66 68.2% pie 1 46 198T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 46 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 27/52 74/104 71.2% pie 28 - 2231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 60 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 21/37 54/74 73.0% pie 3 72 151T456
P 2010 Governor 32/37 20/37 52/74 70.3% pie 2 72 143T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 1 56T103
P 2008 President 52/56 45/56 97/112 86.6% pie 11 0 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 4 0 28T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 0 152T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 19/52 61/104 58.7% pie 16 - 38T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 39/49 22/49 61/98 62.2% pie 20 - 9T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 172 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 13 0 65T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 26/36 61/72 84.7% pie 20 0 22T312
P 2004 President 51/56 39/56 90/112 80.4% pie 6 14 219T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 735/813 496/813 1231/1626 75.7% pie


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