PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - siriusalphacma (G-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-05 Version:9

Prediction Map
siriusalphacma MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
siriusalphacma MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos2
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60-1-114216+5
Rep000-60-6819-6
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222749
Republican94049
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593326
piepiepie

Comments

Corrections to percentages (that I had ignored).

data electoralvote.com and this atlas' poll compliations were used.

Two things: Missouri now looks more solidly favorable to democrats than either MT or VA. And in MD, I dismiss survey USA as a probable outlier.

Unless conditions warrant, this is my last prediction.

//
addition on 11-05

generic polls were "narrowed," (three cases make a pretty strong case). A "rightward" adjustment of the four closest race will probably be needed tomorrow. Let's wait for the polls, if any will be released tomorrow.
//
addition on 11-06

last polls do not justify any changes (if anything, it moves MT out of toss-up, but that's a minor change, and MO back into toss-up, but that's still minor for 24 hr before).

Get out to vote!


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 54/56 43/56 97/112 86.6% pie 10 1 55T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 26/33 59/66 89.4% pie 1 1 4
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 22/52 59/104 56.7% pie 13 - 47T
P 2008 Rep Primary 39/49 19/49 58/98 59.2% pie 14 - 15T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 26/33 59/66 89.4% pie 9 2 7T
Aggregate Predictions 196/223 136/223 332/446 74.4% pie


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