Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-01 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	13
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	10
Ind	2
Tos	6
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	0	+4	-1	-2	-3	13	1	14	+1
Rep	+1	+1	+2	-4	0	-4	10	1	11	-2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	18	27	45
Republican	13	40	53
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
40	29	11

Comments

Ohio is gone. VA-Maryland switch is acctually looking kinda possible. Here's hoping. I'm still holding out here in PA.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-01 @ 14:45:41

PA is going Democratic. Incumbents do not win with numbers like Santorum is posting one week before the election. Wake up and smell the coffee.

NJ is also going Democratic. It has not elected a Republican to the Senate in over 30 years, and it's not going to happen this year either. Kean has not lead in a poll for weeks now.

MD could go Republican, but more likely than not, a state like MD will vote in line with tradition and elect a Democrat.

VA might go Democratic. The recent polls seem to indicate momentum in that direction.

TN will go Republican. Ford just has too high of a hill to climb in a Republican state like TN.

MO could go either way, but I would give the Dems a few points because they are often not adaquately counted in the polls.

By: Eytan (D-ISR) - 2006-11-01 @ 16:05:11

Pennsylvania will go for Casey.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) - 2006-11-01 @ 19:13:44

I can buy GOP winning Missouri and Tenn. But Rick Santorum is going down like a dress on prom night. The GOP don't stand a very good chance in Maryland or Jersey.

By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-02 @ 02:28:05

Its possible that Maryland OR New Jersey could spoil the Democrats big night but I doubt that both will switch.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	3	1	74	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	29/33	11/33	40/66	60.6%	5	6	380	T	465
2006 Governor	27/36	10/36	37/72	51.4%	2	8	279	T	312
2004 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	29	4	66	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	162/181	105/181	267/362	73.8%

Links

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