PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - ottermax () ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-03 Version:12

Prediction Map
ottermax MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
ottermax MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos8
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60-1-114216+5
Rep000-60-6819-6
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222749
Republican94049
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
573324
piepiepie

Comments

Here's the breakdown on the more important races:

Arizona: Not a big race here anymore, leans Republican, and will be won by Kyl.

California: Feinstein will win, but I have no clue by how much. I'm keeping it in the 50% range since California is not a state known for large landslides with its huge popuation.

Connecticut: This race is another race that isn't so big, but I believe it will be close in the end. Liberman will win by a tight margin.

Delaware: Boring. Carper wins.

Florida: Nelson wins.

Indiana: Question, 80 or 90 percent?

Maine: Yet again, a question on percentages, 60 or 70 percent?

Maryland: This is the third closest race. In the end, Cardin will win with the Democratic leanings in the state.

Massachusetts: Dems win.

Michigan: Dems win.

Minnesota: Dems win.

Mississippi: When's the last time they polled here? This race could be close, but alas, I say Lott wins.

Missouri: The closest race out there. I have no clue who will win, and I will go with the candidate I prefer for this prediction.

Montana: A semi-close race. It looks like Tester should win, but a big Republican turnout is possible.

Nebraska: Nelson wins.

Nevada: Ensign wins.

New Jersey: The fourth closest race, I think Menendez will win, but its impossible to tell.

New York: Clinton wins.

North Dakota: Another place lacking polls. Conrad should win, but surprises are possible.

New Mexico: I missed this one, probably because it's not at all competitive.

Ohio: A close race, but I give it to the the Democrats.

Pennsylvania: No longer very competitive, the Dems are shoo-ins.

Rhode Island: A close race that will result in a win for Whitehouse.

Tennessee: I wish this race were closer. I want Ford to win, but the polls are not favoring him. This will still be a close race, but I'm giving it to the Republicans this time.

Texas: Republican win.

Utah: Republican win.

Vermont: Independent win. Bernie Sanders rules!

Virginia: A very close race, I believe this is my second closest race, and I have the feeling that Webb will win by a close margin.

Washington: My state! Maria Cantwell will win, and McGavick has so far had a declining campaign. This race has almost no ads anymore, probably because it's just not so competitive anymore.

West Virginia: Dems win.

Wisconsin: Dems win.

Wyoming: Thomas wins.



Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-03 @ 23:47:33

I think Ohio, Rhode Island, and New Jersey are probably leaners at this point. GOP is more concerned with protecting Allen and Talent.prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-04 @ 00:48:17

I still want to know if Dick Lugar is advocating a national sales tax. prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-04 @ 03:55:31

Who is he? Personally I would actually prefer a sales tax to an income tax.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2016 President 52/56 37/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 24 119T279
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 3 224 182T760
P 2012 Senate 26/33 11/33 37/66 56.1% pie 1 246 291T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 21/52 68/104 65.4% pie 12 - 13T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 6 3 86T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 25/37 60/74 81.1% pie 5 1 45T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 53 41T103
P 2008 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 17 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 4 57T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 3 15 3T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 48/52 26/52 74/104 71.2% pie 13 - 3T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 15/49 55/98 56.1% pie 11 - 27T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 174 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 12 4 20T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 15 3 58T312
P 2004 President 52/56 27/56 79/112 70.5% pie 2 6 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 596/648 376/648 972/1296 75.0% pie


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