Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-09-20 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	8
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	+1	+7	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+6
Rep	0	0	0	-6	-1	-7	8	0	8	-7
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	27	50
Republican	8	40	48
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
51	32	19

Comments

Several months ago, this would be considered far-fetched, but recently it is looking pretty realistic. While I confess I favour the Democrats, I have tried to make this an unbiased observation of poll trends. With these numbers, the Democrats will have the majority - 50 seats in their own right, plus the support of Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and probably Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	1	48	133	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	2	41	71	T	312
2004 President	45/56	34/56	79/112	70.5%	2	306	1285	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	112/125	73/125	185/250	74.0%

Links

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