PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - jjnolla (R-PR) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-07-08 Version:2

Prediction Map
jjnolla MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
jjnolla MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep18
 
Ind1
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind1
 
Tos3
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+20+2-3-2-512012-3
Rep+3+2+5-20-212113+3
Ind0000000110


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic142741
Republican184058
Independent101
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
332310
piepiepie

Comments
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-07-24 @ 01:24:26

NJ, MD, MI I see a lot of you republicans think you will win NJ and MD what make you think that? MI is also out of your reach.
prediction Map

 By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) - 2006-07-24 @ 12:05:06

I'll explain NJ for you:

1.) Name Recognition
Tom Kean Jr.'s father, whose name is also Tom Kean, as a hero in NJ. He was a long-serving governor and recently the chair of the 9-11 commission. You say Tom Kean and people in NJ go crazy, they love him, even Dems. From living in NJ I know about 2-5% of people in the state will vote for him thinking it is his father, and at least another 20 b/c they loved his father.

2.) Corzine, Corzine, Corzine
Since taking office in Jan, Corzine has done nothing right. He's appointed close friends to important government posts (sounds like McGreevey) and raised the sales tax a point. He's shut down the state government, closing Atlantic City for the first time since it opened.

3.) Corruption
Menedez is seen as a Hudson county political boss. Hudson is probably, other than Essex which includes Newark, the most liberal county. It includes Jersey City, Hoboken, and other areas next to New York City. It borders my country, Bergen, to the south. While Menedez is well-liked in Hudson, he is hated in Bergen. People are fed up with the current government and want to return to someone like Tom Kean, so who better than his son?

I hope that answers your question.
prediction Map

 By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-07-25 @ 03:06:51

You did answer the question but I think given the current climate and the tilt of New Jersey to the left will take Menendez over the top.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 31/35 15/35 46/70 65.7% pie 2 19 362T
P 2016 President 50/56 33/56 83/112 74.1% pie 2 52 114T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 17/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 64 120T
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 221 8T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 10/36 45/72 62.5% pie 2 21 282T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 1 21 123T
P 2012 President 50/56 37/56 87/112 77.7% pie 1 350 561T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 6/37 38/74 51.4% pie 4 2 408T
P 2010 Governor 23/37 8/37 31/74 41.9% pie 1 47 290T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 2 122 445T
P 2006 Governor 22/36 12/36 34/72 47.2% pie 1 122 297T
P 2004 President 48/56 31/56 79/112 70.5% pie 1 10 1285T
Aggregate Predictions 378/455 197/455 575/910 63.2% pie


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