Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-04-27 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	19
Ind	1
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	12
Ind	1
Tos	9
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-4	12	1	13	-4
Rep	+3	+1	+4	0	0	0	14	1	15	+4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	27	40
Republican	19	40	59
Independent	1	0	1

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
30	22	8

Comments
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Member Comments

By: Smash255 (D-NY) - 2006-04-28 @ 00:14:29

How exactly did you come to this conclusion. And please explain Florida.

By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-07-24 @ 01:16:18

You are dead wrong about MI, PA, MD, FL.

By: Mike In MD (D-MD) - 2006-07-24 @ 11:34:27

I find it somewhat suspicious that all these maps with sometimes absurdly overoptimistic predictions of GOP gains appeared at about the same time.

And I've noticed a couple of unrealistic pro-Democratic projections here as well. What is going on?

By: polpro (R-NV) - 2006-07-24 @ 11:42:37

I think two things happen: 1) some people have more than one prediction at any one time. 2) the overly optimistic predictions are not based on reality, but rather, wishful thinking.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	46/56	29/56	75/112	67.0%	1	271	659	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	21/35	51/70	72.9%	1	269	241	T	423
2008 President	47/56	23/56	70/112	62.5%	1	12	958	T	1,505
2008 Senate	27/33	11/33	38/66	57.6%	1	12	371	T	407
2006 U.S. Senate	22/33	8/33	30/66	45.5%	1	194	458	T	465
2004 President	49/56	28/56	77/112	68.8%	7	7	1407	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	221/269	120/269	341/538	63.4%

Links

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