PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - mob () ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-10-11 Version:18

Prediction Map
mob MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
mob MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+3+800012012+8
Rep000-5-3-811213-8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic203656
Republican132639
Independent022
pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: mob (-MN) 2008-10-11 @ 16:25:22
I'm still not entirely sure how to differentiate between the two regular seats in Wyoming and Mississippi and the two special elections. Any thoughts?
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-12 @ 22:18:23
I just use MS to represent the MS-"B" special election between Musgrove & Wicker. There's no way to differentiate, so I use the state to depict the competitive race. Nice shading in MN. Who is the independent and why is he getting so much support. (other than the fact its MN).prediction Map

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-12 @ 23:59:25
Dean Barkley. I was just watching the Minnesota Senatorial Debate on C-SPAN, not bad. All three candidates are good. Barkley won't win, but he's going to take a big vote chunk. Also I'm glad someone else noticed the problem of differentiating between the two races going on in Wyoming and Mississippi. In Mississippi I've been under the assumption it's the Cochran race. In Wyoming it doesn't matter. prediction Map

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-13 @ 00:00:22
Although I'm curious what makes you place South Carolina and Tennessee in the toss-up categories. prediction Map

 By: mob (-MN) 2008-10-14 @ 16:26:51
You mean Georgia and Tennessee? I meant to have it actually be Georgia and Kentucky, but I clicked on the wrong state. There's been some polling that the races there are getting close. I try to guess what will end up happening. It doesn't look good, I think.

prediction Map

 By: mob (-MN) 2008-10-14 @ 16:28:59
Also, Dean Barkley was in fact a U.S. Senator from Minnesota for a brief time in 2002 between Wellstone's death and Coleman's swearing-in in January 2003. He was appointed by Gov. Ventura.

Barkley is polling around 18% right now. I don't think he'll pull it out like Ventura did in the 1998 gubernatorial race, but he'll certainly make it interesting. Especially since the ad wars between Coleman and Franken have been so nasty. Heck, part of me wants to vote for Barkley just for that sole reason.
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2016 President 46/56 27/56 73/112 65.2% pie 113 1 496T678
P 2016 Senate 29/34 16/34 45/68 66.2% pie 7 30 277T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 3/12 10/24 41.7% pie 1 107 254T279
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 65 1 401T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 18/33 49/66 74.2% pie 14 1 128T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 40/52 6/52 46/104 44.2% pie 17 - 86T231
P 2010 Senate 31/37 18/37 49/74 66.2% pie 1 9 242T456
P 2010 Governor 25/37 12/37 37/74 50.0% pie 1 9 253T312
P 2008 President 50/56 39/56 89/112 79.5% pie 74 1 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 14/33 47/66 71.2% pie 19 20 204T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 5/11 16/22 72.7% pie 6 24 152T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 36/52 17/52 53/104 51.0% pie 18 - 65T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 35/49 11/49 46/98 46.9% pie 16 - 72T235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 4 1 207T465
P 2006 Governor 32/36 10/36 42/72 58.3% pie 4 1 244T312
P 2004 President 49/56 31/56 80/112 71.4% pie 87 1 1216T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 541/643 282/643 823/1286 64.0% pie


Back to 2008 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved