PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - CollectiveInterest (I-IL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-23 Version:16

Prediction Map
CollectiveInterest MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CollectiveInterest MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind1
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+8+3+1100012012+11
Rep000-9-3-12729-12
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic233659
Republican92635
Independent123
pie

Analysis

Ted Stevens said stupid stuff at his trial. No one says stuff that stupid unless they are guilty of something. And jurors aren't in the mood to cut powerful pols a break even if the prosecution did a half-assed job.

Barkeley surges b/c of negative campaigning and people being generally PO'd at Dems and Republicans.

The Obama landslide combined with anti-GOP sentiment and McCain's horrible campaign tip the balance in the remaining races, plus John Cornyn being an effing moron.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 16

Ted Stevens said stupid stuff at his trial. No one says stuff that stupid unless they are guilty of something. And jurors aren't in the mood to cut powerful pols a break even if the prosecution did a half-assed job.

Barkeley surges b/c of negative campaigning and people being generally PO'd at Dems and Republicans.

The Obama landslide combined with anti-GOP sentiment and McCain's horrible campaign tip the balance in the remaining races, plus John Cornyn being an effing moron.


Version: 15

Stevens gets acquitted and Minnesota throws U.S. politics a curveball.

Johanns, Cornyn and Lindsey Graham shouldn't get too comfortable. The sinking USS McCain may drag them down in the undertow.


Version: 14

The worm has turned. McCain/Palin is a disaster. McCain is erratic and makes bad decisions. Palin is... let's leave it at she's not qualified to become POTUS.

And the Congressional Republicans managed to play the Paulson bailout bill as badly as the situation could be played. They made a deal with Bush, the Democrats and Wall Street and then reneged on the deal. And the GOP got caught distributing their commercial campaigning against the Bush-Obama-Pelosi bailout before the bill passed.

Incompetent.

BTW, check out the polling on GA, http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=F63B597687B0A2F9B1A5DABC48895EFE?diaryId=3232


Version: 13

McCain is a weak candidate and the various crises will sour voters on GOP policies.


Version: 12

McCain gets beat badly by Obama.


Version: 11

Dems (Schumer) are openly talking about winning 11 seats.

The independent caucus will be Lieberman, Sanders and Ventura. Those meetings should be entertaining.


Version: 10

How much did the Dems win MS-01 by? Eight points or something?

The Republicans have nothing left except incumbency.

The GOP fear message isn't working.

Voters perceive the country is on the wrong track, big time. And they blame George W. Bush and the party of Bush. And the GOP is dominated by delusional sycophants that can't disown Bush.

The Democrats know this is the year to win big.

And Obama will be able to use his 1.5 million donors and Lord knows how many volunteers to tip races around the country.

The GOP heavily influences or controls much of the national media, but most of these Senate races will happen in local media while the national media covers the presidential election.


Version: 9

Obama leads an energized Dem base. McCain fails to energize a diminished Republican base. Kansas, Alabama and Kentucky could be in play by the time it's over.

Dems already won in IL-14 and LA-06. Watch the results in MS-01.

If the Dems win MS-01 race I suspect large donors who are in politics for pragmatic reasons will see that money spent on the GOP will be wasted this cycle. It will go to losing candidates who, even if they won, won't hold any influence in Congress anyway.


Version: 8

Musgrove in Mississippi. Ventura in Minnesota.


Version: 7

Mike Moore wins seat held by Trent Lott.


Version: 6

Ventura wins in Minnesota.

The story about Jeff Sessions taking bribes grows. As does the story about Ted Stevens.

And Mike Moore wins election in Mississippi.


Version: 5

Jesse "The Body" makes a come back.

Republicans get trounced.


Version: 4

Stevens is too arrogant to step aside and he's gonna be exposed for being a crook.


Version: 3

Buyer's remorse in Texas gave us George W. Bush and it will dislodge the stupid Senator from Texas.

Idaho GOP doesn't have a good candidate. Unified Dems win in good year for Dems.

GOP keeps Alaska by getting Ted Stevens to step aside.


Version: 2

Accountability will be painful for the GOP.


Version: 1

In 2008 the party of Bush will be held accountable.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-10-27 @ 16:56:14
G-U-I-L-T-Y.

F-you, Uncle Ted.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-28 @ 00:23:29
Aside from Barkley, its possible.

Coryn loosing at this point is improbable, however much of a moron he is.

Dems. running the table of KY, GA & MS-B is unlikely.
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 37 1 100T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 19/33 49/66 74.2% pie 17 6 144T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 343 152T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 35 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 6 4 156T465
P 2006 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 4 4 122T312
P 2004 President 43/56 22/56 65/112 58.0% pie 42 1 1721T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 201/228 131/228 332/456 72.8% pie


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