I cannot remember a Senate incumbent that fell below 50% and went on to win reelection. I think goose is cooked on the GOP. Now, the caveat is that Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi are fundamentally very conservative states, so they could easily hold on, so could Norm Coleman in Minnesota and Alaska's Ted Stevens if he gets acquitted. But most Senate classes break to one party or another.

This map goes along with the President Prediction for today as well - an Obama/Clinton landslide against McCain/Romney with a 1980-like election in reverse that shows the party out of power in a close election but breaking heavily Democratic in the end once people get used to the idea of Barack Obama being Commander in Chief.

The Running the Table Option (circa 1980 in reverse):

Everyone thought Reagan/Carter would be close and it was at 39/39 until the week before the election when all the undecided swung to Reagan.

This is the absolute worst case scenario for the Republicans. As of right now, Texas, Maine, and Kentucky are severe pipe dreams. North Carolina has not reelected a single Senator since 1972 with the notable exception of Jesse Helms who never cracked 55% of the vote there. Polling shows Dole, Cornyn, and Stevens could be in real trouble. I won't believe it until I see their opponents close to cracking 50%.

Mitch McConnell, Gordon Smith, and Olympia Snowe do not appear to be in any danger at the moment, but it's extremely hard to imagine them holding on if Armegeddon spills into Texas.

If the Dems continue to have money to burn expect them to throw some McConnell's opponents way as a thank you for ousting Daschle in 2004.

Wyoming I and II, Idaho, and Mississippi I and II - of these only two could even imaginably become competitive, but if that many states fell who knows. In this year it might be reasonable to be thinking out of the box so as not to be surprised.

In my heart of hearts I expect a 5 seat gain for the Dems in the Senate - anything beyond that is unreasonable and pollyannish. But that's what this website is for - fun.

This would be if the Democrats have a 1980-like landslide where seats fell that no one in their wildest dreams would have expected them to fall to Republicans that year, just like the 1920 election where the Democrats were also uniformly rejected in a change election. This is the absolute worst-case scenario for the Republicans. The next one will be a more realistic prediction.

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