Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-27 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+3	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
45	32	13

Analysis

It is possible for Democrats to have a filibuster proof senate till 2010. With the independence caucusing with Democrats it makes 58-42. I can see Norm Coleman losing making 59-41. If Lieberman decides to caucus with the GOP it will change slightly, but most issues he will support Democrats. I don't see sixty because the Democrats will have to take Collins seat in Maine where she is doing very well and is liberal on some issues. Kentucky where McConnell is good. Now it is possible that a filibuster can work in some cases among Conservative Democrats like Bayh Indiana, Others in Florida, Nebraska, and Montana.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	34/35	23/35	57/70	81.4%	1	42	124	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	1	42	104	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	16	28	T	118
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	4	7	260	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	71	274	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	1	340	147	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	6	104	T	192
2018 Senate	35/35	21/35	56/70	80.0%	4	4	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	4	6	226	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	2	40	T	149
2016 President	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%	4	0	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	3	164	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	2	0	25	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	24/36	59/72	81.9%	6	3	42	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	19/36	49/72	68.1%	4	3	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	57	17	T	153
2012 President	51/56	35/56	86/112	76.8%	11	0	591	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	8	0	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	5	0	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	22/52	67/104	64.4%	14	-	16	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	3	40	79	T	106
2010 Senate	32/37	23/37	55/74	74.3%	13	0	133	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	24/37	58/74	78.4%	12	0	74	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	4	8	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%	7	8	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	13/33	45/66	68.2%	4	8	257	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	1	193	183	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	693/759	425/759	1118/1518	73.6%

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