Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:23

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	13	26	39
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	33	25

Analysis

This will be my last prediction.
I took a bit of a risk with North Carolina.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 22

Georgia? Still don't think so.

Version: 20

Not sweet 60, but pretty f***ing close.

Version: 13

No, Mississippi ain't a mistake! Musgrove actually has a good chance at taking the seat. I don't know if it's safe to say or not, but it looks like the Democrats a stirring yp a new tidal wave. They'll have net gains in both the House and Senate, giving Barack Obama a fairly strong ability to govern, at least in his first two years.
I also moved North Carolina to tossup, since Dole isn't doing as well as she should be.

Version: 11

Flipped Alaska and Minesota.

Version: 6

Moved Alaska to tossup.

Version: 1

I think Landreau is in trouble. She isn't too popular, and the demogrphic change that occured in Louisiana due to Katrina (migration of New Orleans residents to other states) has badly hurt the Democrats.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	10	0	47	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	6	0	111	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	9/52	4/52	13/104	12.5%	3	-	206	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	5	140	12	T	106
2010 Senate	37/37	23/37	60/74	81.1%	14	1	54	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	20/37	51/74	68.9%	3	137	158	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	54	6	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	23	6	5	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	11/11	22/22	100.0%	10	6	1	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	20	34	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	69	1	10	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	26/36	61/72	84.7%	59	1	22	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	335/391	250/391	585/782	74.8%

Links

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