PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - Minion of Midas (G-DEU) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:5

Prediction Map
Minion of Midas MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Minion of Midas MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+3+800012012+8
Rep000-5-3-811213-8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic203656
Republican132639
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553322
piepiepie

Analysis

Yah, final calls time.

MS-2 is 50/lean. WY-2 is 70/safe.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 4

So I chickened out.

WY/MS still for full seats. Barasso as safe as Enzi (or is it Crapo? Never can tell them apart.) Wicker still tossup R.


Version: 3

I *needed* to be the first to predict a Barkley win. ;D Besides, this was in need of updating anyhow.
Predictions are for full terms. Other WY seat is safe/60, other MS seat is tossup R/50.


Version: 2

Updated to take account of developments.

MS remainder would be R tossup >50.
WY remainder is obviously safe R.


Version: 1

I only used the 50+, 60+ and 70+ shades. It#s impossible to predict the incumbent of third candidates in close races (40+), or counting opponents that are complete jokes (80+) or their complete absence (90+) this far out.

In the cases of AK, SD and ID it's not yet clear at all what the incumbent party primary would like, making predictions essentially impossible.

EDIT: "Update" is actually a correction of two errors I somehow overlooked.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 54/56 42/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 3 265T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 3 3 56T343
P 2008 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 8 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 5 4 28T407
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 163 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 23/33 53/66 80.3% pie 6 1 88T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 15/36 48/72 66.7% pie 2 170 157T312
P 2004 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 9 1 98T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 290/306 210/306 500/612 81.7% pie


Back to 2008 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved