Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:6
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 66)
Analysis
Can the Demcorats hit 60 seats? The answer is not really. Even including Joe Leiberman who really isn't a Democrat any more, they would most likely have to knock off Senator Saxby Chambliss of Georgia in a runoff election in December. Chambliss, however, has a lot of money at his disposal and won't have to deal with the crush of first time voters voting for Obama in December that he will on November 4th. However, 60 seats including Leiberman remians a distinct possibility.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 5 While the polls still show a close race in NC and OR, I am moving both races to Lean Democrat because the NRSC is out of money and-if they're smart-will use its money to save Republican seats in states that will be carried by the McCain Palin ticket such as GA and KY. Additionally, the incumbents in both races have very little time to turn the race around and recent polls have shown their challengers maintaining small but consistent leads. Version: 4 Democrats could be looking at a big gain come November. A posible November surprize: Jeff Merkley of Oregon. Version: 2 Saw some more Rassmussen polls so I edited the percentages. Version: 1 The WICKER seat in Mississippi is the tossup, not the Cochran seat.
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