Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+3	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
50	32	18

Analysis

MY FINAL SENATE PREDICTION

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Here is a conservative estimate for 2008 senate.

I think the GOP should write off VA and NH. The Dems have powerful challengers.Gilmore ain't as popular as Warner. However, I concede that VA may be closer than many expect - if Hillary is the pres candidate. NH is a swing state,and I think the gut feeling of the voters is to change party - GOP in 00, Dem in 04.

South Dakota may be GOP presidentially, but I think the state has a history of electing Dem governors, senators. Moreover, don't underestimate the power of a sympathy vote....

Lousiana is demographically trending GOP. From what I've seen, Landrieu has had some good fundraising, but in some polls I've seen she doesn't win convincingly for an incumbent. The GOP may well smell blood here, in what may be a bad year. They may decide to concentrate resources. If Landrieu has a reputation for delivering good constituent service,then she may still survive. But I wouldn't lay good odds...

A Hillary candidacy to poison chances in CO. The devil herself will be in Denver - possibly giving the GOP more ammunition to demonise her more. But if the Dem convention goes well, then there amy be a surprise here.

I thought Heather Wilson represented a Dem-leaning district in NM, and survived in 06? She'd be too good for the GOP to pass on. Doesn't she have a knowledge of foreign affairs too?

ME will probably go Dem preisdentially, but their GOP senator is too well liked. The at times shocking inefficiency of politicla aprties will help keep the GOP safe in MN, OR. Of the two, MN is most likely to change party. The winner here and OR to get less than 50% of the vote. 3rd parties will matter here.

If the Dems find a moderate, well-financed, candidate, they may bring down the GOP in NC, KY. But since this is most unlikley to happen, Dole can breath a sigh of relief.

If an even larger scandal blows up in Alaska, then there may be a Dem gain. Isn't their front runner the Mayor of Anchorage? He shouldn't be a walk over...

Version: 1

GOP have tough incumbents in ME, MN, OR, and they have moved away from Bush - split ballots and incumbency will allow them to survive in Dem states - just - hence 40% band in MN, OR.

The demographics in LA are now against the Dems.

Dem incumbent in SD to get sympathy vote.

NM, CO to be close - depends on who the Dem nominee for preisdent is, and how the local senate candidate relates to them.If it is Hillary, then the Dem senate candidates will stay away from her.

Sununu is facing stiff opposition, in an anti-war state.

Warner more popular than Gilmore.

Version History

Member Comments

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-02 @ 16:48:07
7 Dem pick-ups. My rationale: ME - was never really, truly, in doubt. NH - ditto. VA - ditto NC - I think the Godless remarks make Dole look desperate, and people don't like that. I don't really beleive Obama will carry NC - but given the impressive groundwork he's put in there, and the fact that NC has had Dem senators before, I think it's possible. GA / KY - still GOP LA - polls have been good to ML, people don't like turn coats, and hEr name will help. Landrieu survives. MS - Musgrove comes in sight of victory. And misses - just. MN - the third party skews the result for both parties, but Coleman has the incumbents advantage. And the GOP did make a fuss in Minneapolis & over Pawlenty... SD - the Dem margin of victory could ahve been 60+. But Johnson's illness is not as recent. He'll get a very respectable 58/59%. Still some elements of a sympathy vote. CO / NM - never really in doubt. GOP chose bad candidates. OR - I was going to give it to Smith - being a seasoned incumbent - but then I read his approval ratings aren't particularly good in this Dem leaning state - which is certainly going to back Obama. Smith loses - but perhaps not by as much as we think - Oregon IS a rural state, and has a sizable GOP base. AR - who's going to back a convicted GOP senator? Perhaps WY, ID. But in Alaska most of the voters are independents. They won't like this. Not even Palin can help the GOP here.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	2	36	182	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	9/33	39/66	59.1%	1	36	268	T	343
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	1	100	2	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	7	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	6	1	106	T	312
2008 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	31	1	219	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	4	2	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	2	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	16/52	0/52	16/104	15.4%	1	-	211	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	1	37	299	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	14/36	50/72	69.4%	3	16	132	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	336/388	190/388	526/776	67.8%

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