Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	12
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	10
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	+3	+9	0	0	0	12	0	12	+9
Rep	0	0	0	-6	-3	-9	10	2	12	-9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	36	57
Republican	12	26	38
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	32	24

Analysis

I am now predicting that Jim Martin will outpoll Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race, though he will recieve less than 50% of the vote, and there will be a runoff in December.

Therefore, the 2008 cycle goes on another month to determine whether the Dems. obtain a 'fillibuster proof' majority.

Margins in KY and MN will also be razor thin, IMHO.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2008-11-06 @ 15:44:19
It's funny how you were so critical of my map, and mine will end up much better than yours, depending on Oregon.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 02:46:27
Our final maps differ on GA & MN. There will be a recount in MN, where Coleman leads by a mere 237 votes out of 2.8 million cast - about a thousanths of a percent. Don't count your chickens before they hatch. While you were correct that Chambliss outpolled Martin Tuesday, you were incorrect that he would poll over 50% and avoid a runoff. I was incorrect that Martin would win more votes, but correct on the percentage. So were even there. The runoff will be our tiebreaker - K?

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-19 @ 10:08:26
How will Liep score GA - on Nov. 4 voting or on the runoff? I got the Nov. 4 vote wrong, but still have a shot re the runoff, at least in the result.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	7	6	434	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	21/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	3	27	132	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	3	21	94	T	372
2016 President	53/56	22/56	75/112	67.0%	21	1	440	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	17/34	45/68	66.2%	5	5	277	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	2/12	9/24	37.5%	1	94	269	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	4	0	122	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	17/36	44/72	61.1%	2	16	171	T	300
2012 President	54/56	41/56	95/112	84.8%	9	0	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	14/33	46/66	69.7%	1	191	189	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	12/52	47/104	45.2%	10	-	83	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	9	15	116	T	456
2010 Governor	30/37	15/37	45/74	60.8%	1	299	214	T	312
2008 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	22	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	5	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	4	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	45/52	21/52	66/104	63.5%	8	-	26	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	43/49	11/49	54/98	55.1%	11	-	31	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	671/752	389/752	1060/1504	70.5%

Links

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