PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:5

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
wingindy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+6+3+900012012+9
Rep000-6-3-910212-9
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic213657
Republican122638
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
563224
piepiepie

Analysis

I am now predicting that Jim Martin will outpoll Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race, though he will recieve less than 50% of the vote, and there will be a runoff in December.

Therefore, the 2008 cycle goes on another month to determine whether the Dems. obtain a 'fillibuster proof' majority.

Margins in KY and MN will also be razor thin, IMHO.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: tmthforu94 (I-KS) 2008-11-06 @ 15:44:19
It's funny how you were so critical of my map, and mine will end up much better than yours, depending on Oregon.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 02:46:27
Our final maps differ on GA & MN. There will be a recount in MN, where Coleman leads by a mere 237 votes out of 2.8 million cast - about a thousanths of a percent. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

While you were correct that Chambliss outpolled Martin Tuesday, you were incorrect that he would poll over 50% and avoid a runoff. I was incorrect that Martin would win more votes, but correct on the percentage. So were even there. The runoff will be our tiebreaker - K?
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-19 @ 10:08:26
How will Liep score GA - on Nov. 4 voting or on the runoff? I got the Nov. 4 vote wrong, but still have a shot re the runoff, at least in the result.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 27 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 3 21 94T372
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T300
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T456
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T235
Aggregate Predictions 585/661 332/661 917/1322 69.4% pie


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