PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:5

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
wingindy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+6+3+900012012+9
Rep000-6-3-910212-9
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic213657
Republican122638
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
563224
piepiepie

Analysis

I am now predicting that Jim Martin will outpoll Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race, though he will recieve less than 50% of the vote, and there will be a runoff in December.

Therefore, the 2008 cycle goes on another month to determine whether the Dems. obtain a 'fillibuster proof' majority.

Margins in KY and MN will also be razor thin, IMHO.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Finally an update, though mostly on confidence. The only result change is that of Georgia, to reflect that the race will remain undecided on Nov. 5, as neither candidate will garner an outright majority. There will be a runoff election in December. Therefore, including independents, the Democratic caucus will have 59 members, to 40 for the GOP. The last seat, potentially the Dems. 60th, will be determined in Dec.

This aside, the closest race currently appears to be in Minnesota. I still class MS-B and KY as toss-ups, though with a GOP tilt. Last minute campaigning by the Clintons in KY and black turnout in MS could turn the tide, however. I will update on Monday if necessary.


Version: 3

Tantilizingly close to a filibuster-proof majority. I'm afraid it will have to wait until 2012.


Version: 2

Stevens, under indictment, is going to get beat. Dem challangers in NM & Colorado have the upper hand. Oregon & Minn. still tossups, in additon to Wicker's seat in MS.


Version: 1

This is my first shot at this. A bit optimistic in Ore., and a bit pessimistic in NC, perhaps. Dems. will pickup 5-7 seats.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: tmthforu94 (I-MO) 2008-11-06 @ 15:44:19
It's funny how you were so critical of my map, and mine will end up much better than yours, depending on Oregon.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 02:46:27
Our final maps differ on GA & MN. There will be a recount in MN, where Coleman leads by a mere 237 votes out of 2.8 million cast - about a thousanths of a percent. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

While you were correct that Chambliss outpolled Martin Tuesday, you were incorrect that he would poll over 50% and avoid a runoff. I was incorrect that Martin would win more votes, but correct on the percentage. So were even there. The runoff will be our tiebreaker - K?
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-19 @ 10:08:26
How will Liep score GA - on Nov. 4 voting or on the runoff? I got the Nov. 4 vote wrong, but still have a shot re the runoff, at least in the result.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 27 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 3 21 94T372
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T300
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T456
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T235
Aggregate Predictions 585/661 332/661 917/1322 69.4% pie


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