Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:95

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	13	26	39
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	33	16

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 93

59D-41R

GA is the only seat in play to get to 60 and we will wait and see how that plays out.

Version: 92

Last prediction.

Version: 90

57D-43R
Final.

Map based on the moderate republicans are likely to lose and the traditional republicans are likely to win, that's why I don't have Liz Dole losing or Wicker.

Finalized predictions, because no intervening event will change the scenario of this race.

Version: 87

Final Prediction
MN too close to call
57D-43R

OR,NC,and KY has the potential to get to 60 but the conservatives won't go down.

Version: 86

D favored: LA,NH,NM,CO,AK
R favored: OR,KY,ME
NCADV: MN

Version: 77

top tier: CO,NM,NH,VA
Bottom tier: MN,AK

Version: 75

Top tier: AK,CO,NH,NM,VA
Bottom tier: MN

4-6 seat net gain

Version: 74

Top tier: CO,VA,NH,NM
bottom tier: AK,MN,LA

Version: 72

Tier 1: AK,CO,NM,NH,VA
Tier 2: NC,MN
Tier 3: OR,ME

Version: 69

Net: VA,NM,NH,CO
Net 1 of the following: AK,MN,or NC
Net +5 only.

Version: 68

Net gain 4-5 seats, will come down to MN or AK
Don't think coattails will carry Dems over 5 sts.

Version: 67

Ultra safe SC,AL,MS,VA,NM,ME
TU: MN
Leaning CO,LA,AK,OR,NH

Version: 62

Order of vul: VA,NM,NH,CO,AK,OR

Version: 38

Dems net gain 3-4 senate seats, either NH or CO can go the GOP's way.

Version: 36

Tossups: CO and AK
Lean: NH, OR, MN, and LA
Likely SD, NM, and VA

Version: 31

55-45 senate, Landrieu and Coleman should win their races. The only race I see that is truely a tossup is CO and the presidential race should be a factor.

4 leans Democratic LA, NM, NH, and VA
1 tossup CO
2 leans republican OR, MN
1 likely republican AK

Version: 29

TUPS: CO, LA, and MN

Version: 27

55-45 senate, net gain 4 seats, with the possibility of winning OR, AK, or MN.

Version: 26

55-45 Senate.

Version: 17

With a net gain of 3-5 seats, the only one in trouble for the Dems is Mary Landrieu and despite the polls CO, NM, and NH go to the Dems.

Version: 13

3 tossups AK, MN, and CO
5 seats turnover LA, VA, NH, NM, and CO.
Net gain 3 Democratic seats.

Version: 9

The republicans are likely to lose seats, I expect them to pickup at least one, which is Mary Landrieu.

Version: 4

MN and OR leans republican, possible for an upset, but lean to the incumbant party.
NM and LA are tossups
SD, NH, and CO are lean Democrat
Everything else probably remains clear advantage to other party.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					244
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	25	22	108	T	115
2022 Senate	25/35	12/35	37/70	52.9%	271	0	298	T	305
2022 Governor	27/36	14/36	41/72	56.9%	281	0	265	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	11	41	48	T	118
2020 President	45/56	26/56	71/112	63.4%	443	5	670	T	684
2020 Senate	24/35	8/35	32/70	45.7%	339	3	422		423
2020 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	127	5	264	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	61	4	104	T	192
2018 Senate	28/35	15/35	43/70	61.4%	201	1	417	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	13/36	42/72	58.3%	212	3	330	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	99	98	T	149
2016 President	47/56	20/56	67/112	59.8%	337	3	597	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	12/34	38/68	55.9%	344	2	352	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	5/12	12/24	50.0%	127	3	164	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	72	0	57	T	112
2014 Senate	28/36	12/36	40/72	55.6%	435	0	337	T	382
2014 Governor	25/36	6/36	31/72	43.1%	402	0	293	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	19	1	98	T	153
2012 President	55/56	25/56	80/112	71.4%	291	1	681	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	171	1	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	4/11	15/22	68.2%	103	1	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	29/52	8/52	37/104	35.6%	116	-	121	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	18	186	12	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	15/37	49/74	66.2%	281	1	242	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	8/37	42/74	56.8%	280	1	230	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	26	40	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	29/56	81/112	72.3%	129	1	474	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	16/33	49/66	74.2%	95	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	39	3	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	47/52	20/52	67/104	64.4%	55	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	14/49	53/98	54.1%	23	-	36	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	8	24	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	117	0	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	114	0	10	T	312
2004 President	51/56	31/56	82/112	73.2%	167	1	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	833/994	407/994	1240/1988	62.4%

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