Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:21

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	11
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	11
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+7	+3	+10	0	0	0	12	0	12	+10
Rep	0	0	0	-7	-3	-10	9	2	11	-10
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	36	58
Republican	11	26	37
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
45	31	14

Analysis

Another map I'm taking into tomorrow and beyond (so final).

I think the Democrats via a more modified Obama/Biden landslide and some self-inflicted wounds by GOP U.S. Senators will just miss the 60 seat mark mainly because Mitch McConnell in Kentucky will squeek by and updated from my last prediction map Maine's Susan Collins has improved her standing.

The rest will be history!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	23/37	10/37	33/74	44.6%	3	325	441	T	456
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	2	2	56	T	103
2008 President	50/56	31/56	81/112	72.3%	98	1	474	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	21	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	8	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	29/52	7/52	36/104	34.6%	8	-	124	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	21/49	1/49	22/98	22.4%	11	-	152	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	4	16	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	51	1	113	T	465
2006 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	44	1	132	T	312
2004 President	46/56	38/56	84/112	75.0%	114	1	834	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	280/368	148/368	428/736	58.2%

Links

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