Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:14

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+3	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	32	23

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 8

Mississippi Special Election: Wicker >50%
Wyoming Special Election: Barasso >60%

Version: 6

I changed Coleman from a narrow victory to a narrow defeat.

Version: 3

Moving Maine and Illinois to 60s.

Version: 2

Changing Minnesota to lean R for a combination of Franken: (Strong R) and Ciresi (Tossup)

Version: 1

Kentucky should actually be R 50%.
Top 10 Closest Seats:
1. LA, Landrieu, 50.2%, Kennedy, 49.8%
2. CO, Udall, 52.3%, Schaefer, 46.1%
3. MN, Coleman, 52.5%, Franken 46.5%
4. NM, Udall, 53.2%, Pearce 46%
5. KY, McConnell, 54.1%, DEM, 45.5%
6. NJ, Lautenberg, 54.4%, REP, 45.1%
7. OR, Smith 54.9%, Merkeley, 44.9%
8. ME, Collins, 55.5%, Allen, 44.0%
9. NH, Shaheen, 57.3%, Sununu, 42.0%
10. SD, Johnson 57.5%, REP, 42%

Other Pickup:
VA, Warner 63.2%, Gilmore, 36.6%

Version History

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	10	1	115	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	22/33	53/66	80.3%	4	1	56	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	3	1	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	48/52	29/52	77/104	74.0%	26	-	1		231
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	26	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	10	1	29	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	7	1	1	T	103
2008 President	53/56	48/56	101/112	90.2%	20	1	6	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	14	0	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	3	1	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	38/52	17/52	55/104	52.9%	19	-	61	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	40/49	7/49	47/98	48.0%	10	-	64	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	0/3	3/6	50.0%	1	105	135	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	391/432	257/432	648/864	75.0%

Links

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