Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:6

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	12
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	+3	+9	0	0	0	12	0	12	+9
Rep	0	0	0	-6	-3	-9	10	2	12	-9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	36	57
Republican	12	26	38
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	32	22

Analysis

Okay I think it looks like Mitch is going to hang on in Kentucky. I am hoping this isn't true but I think Mitch will win.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 5

Georgia is now very very close as evidenced by two recent polls.

I expect that there will be a strong turnout and this will barely push Jim Martin over the top.

I expect this same phenomenom to happen in

Kentucky
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oregon

It Could Also happen in Texas and Mississippi. Although Mississippi's Wicker-Musgrove race is not listed here. I think Musgrove can definitely win.

Version: 4

Version: 3

Just a change in terms of leans or tossups. Mississippi Open Seat will be won by Musgrove so long as there is a huge turn out.

Kentucky
Minnesota
Oregon
Texas

and a few other states all depend on high Democratic turn out.

Version: 2

Polls have shown Lunsford getting closer. Minnesota is within the margin of error.

If Dem Turnout in Minnesota is Huge Franken Wins.

Version: 1

Alaska is dependent on Begich getting in.

A few seats however like Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Carolina may be competitive.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	1	23	240	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	23	171	T	300
2008 President	51/56	38/56	89/112	79.5%	6	0	247	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	6	0	48	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	31	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	17/52	48/104	46.2%	2	-	80	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	32/49	5/49	37/98	37.8%	1	-	105	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	216/273	122/273	338/546	61.9%

Links

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