PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-08-23 Version:3

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
wingindy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+3+800012012+8
Rep000-5-3-811213-8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic203656
Republican132639
Independent022
pie

Analysis

Tantilizingly close to a filibuster-proof majority. I'm afraid it will have to wait until 2012.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-08-23 @ 03:11:25
Dole, previously thought of as safe, is no longer. MS-B, GA, & KY will be tight races as well.prediction Map

 By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-08-30 @ 10:26:38
Wing - not your best map. I think the Dems have more of a chance in MS special election than NC. The GOP have a slight, but consistant, lead in OR, MN. prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-30 @ 12:46:35
This is an enthusiastic map. Maybe, but probably not.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-09 @ 10:54:12
Have you guys seen the last few polls in NC?? Dole is in real trouble. This seat has leap-frogged MS-B, MN, & probably OR as more likely to flip, IMHO.prediction Map

 By: tmthforu94 (I-MO) 2008-09-23 @ 15:59:45
The Senate wouldn't be the same without Dole. :(prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-27 @ 01:19:08
A month later, and I stand by my map. The most questionable pickup at this point is MN.prediction Map

 By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-09-30 @ 17:26:22
I'm gonna enjoy watching Republicans interviewed on election night.

"We let the Republican Party be too closely identified with one person. The Democrats were able to connect individual Republicans to the unpopular Bush administration. We need to get back to conservative principles. Some fine public servants were defeated tonight."
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-30 @ 23:38:19
Yes! Very nice. Now SUSA, which showed "Saxby" Chambliss up by 17% 2 weeks ago, shows him up by 2. How's that for a wild swing?? My only reservation in writing the above a few days ago was depicting Georgia as a toss-up. Well, it may yet be.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-30 @ 23:54:21
That makes TEN GOP seats in play - 10!

Democratic seats: still none at risk.
prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-10-02 @ 10:33:34
@wingindy- I think this side of the forum we will find a lot more common ground ;)

Dole is in serious trouble. Notice that Grahams numbers are getting closer as are Chambliss. I'd LOVE to see Chambliss get beat, but I dont think its going to happen. The MS-B race is interesting but I think Wicker will retain it, very narrowly unless black turnout is huge from Obama. I have no idea what to make about MN? Is Franken even taken seriously?

Filibuster proof, I highly doubt this year, but 2010 might bring that. I will guarantee you that Voinovich will be VERY vulnerable here in Ohio. His numbers have been under 50% since prior to DeWine's defeat. I had hoped that Tubbs-Jones would run for his seat in 2010, but her tragic death was a big blow. Marcy Kaptur might make a run for it in 2010. You might also want to watch out for Jennifer Brunner the SOS here in OHIO.

If the Dem trend holds up in 2010, you will see 60.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-15 @ 00:21:15
I'd make a new map, but the prediction would remain the same. NC, OR & MN all now lean Dem.

While chances of a fillibuster proof majority this year have certainly improved, I'd agree that its still an outside chance. 2010 will present a plethora of opportunities to close what will be a narrow gap - McCain retirement/Napolotino in AZ; Sebilius in KS; Jim Bunning; Grassley/Vilsack?; Chris Matthews against Spector in PA?? I'd say 60+ by 2010!
prediction Map

 By: Aguagon (D-AZ) 2008-10-16 @ 02:36:41
Funny how just a few weeks ago, I would have called this a partisan dream map, and now it looks very realistic. Good job calling this almost two months before the polls showed it! I just hope this trend holds until election day.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-18 @ 01:52:52
No doubt, Georgia is a toss-up. Martin is actually now leading Chambliss. I may have to make a new map after all. I take back 60 being an outside shot - I put it more like a 40% chance now, with Georgia edging out MS-B as currently the most likely 60th.

Last Edit: 2008-10-19 @ 02:31:30
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-27 @ 16:36:17
I thought I'd make a new map in light of Stevens' conviction to make Alaska strong Dem., but see I already have that. I'm guessing my only changes will be in confidence: NH, NJ & CO are now strong Dem., and NC & OR are lean Dem. ID, NE, OK & TN are strong GOP. I'm inclined to give Martin the win over Chambliss, but I'm going to watch it for a few days.

Hillibilly & French: still think this map is over-optimistic?? :P
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 27 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 3 21 94T372
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T300
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T456
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T235
Aggregate Predictions 585/661 332/661 917/1322 69.4% pie


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