Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Analysis

MY FINAL SENATE PREDICTION

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-02 @ 16:48:07
7 Dem pick-ups. My rationale: ME - was never really, truly, in doubt. NH - ditto. VA - ditto NC - I think the Godless remarks make Dole look desperate, and people don't like that. I don't really beleive Obama will carry NC - but given the impressive groundwork he's put in there, and the fact that NC has had Dem senators before, I think it's possible. GA / KY - still GOP LA - polls have been good to ML, people don't like turn coats, and hEr name will help. Landrieu survives. MS - Musgrove comes in sight of victory. And misses - just. MN - the third party skews the result for both parties, but Coleman has the incumbents advantage. And the GOP did make a fuss in Minneapolis & over Pawlenty... SD - the Dem margin of victory could ahve been 60+. But Johnson's illness is not as recent. He'll get a very respectable 58/59%. Still some elements of a sympathy vote. CO / NM - never really in doubt. GOP chose bad candidates. OR - I was going to give it to Smith - being a seasoned incumbent - but then I read his approval ratings aren't particularly good in this Dem leaning state - which is certainly going to back Obama. Smith loses - but perhaps not by as much as we think - Oregon IS a rural state, and has a sizable GOP base. AR - who's going to back a convicted GOP senator? Perhaps WY, ID. But in Alaska most of the voters are independents. They won't like this. Not even Palin can help the GOP here.

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