PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:7

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages


I still don't feel like the GOP is headed for a blood bath in the congressional elections despite the polls and the beltway conventional wisedom. I think a lot of people are mad at government and that includes the Democrats. Pelosi and Reid are as unpopular as Bush. The current do-nothing congress has an approval rating of what, 9%? No the GOP was punished in 2006 already. Having said that I think we'll loose seat simply because the make up of various races poses some serious challenges. But I don't see a Democratic supermajority either.

Here are the seats I still consider safely Republican:

Maine - Susan Collins
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss
Alabama - Jeff Sessions
Mississippi - Thad Cochran
Mississippi - James Wicker
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Texas - John Cornyn
Oklahoma - James Inhofe
Kansas - Pat Roberts
Nebraska - Mike Johanns
Wyoming - Michael Enzi
Wyoming - John Barrusso
Idaho - Jim Risch

Every Democratic seat save one is safe this year:

Massachusetts - John Kerry
Rhode Island - John Reed
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg
Delaware - Joe Biden
West Virginia - John Rockefeller
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
Michigan - Carl Levin
Iowa - Tom Harkin
Illinois - Richard Durbin
Arkansas - Mark Pryor
Montana - Max Baucus

Of the competitive races I can find little daylight for the GOP, much to my disappointment. However we should be able to keep the Democrats away from 60 seats:

Alaska - I can't believe that we've renominated that currupt loser Ted Stevens. I hope he gets beat, we don't need him in our party. Good riddance I say. Looks like Begich is going to be Alaska's next senator. The Republican party will be better off for it, that's for sure.

New Hampshire - Sununu could still beat Jeanne Shaheen though I believe she is favored to win. McCain may have long enough coatails should he carry the state to affect the race and help the incumbent pull off a last minute win. This is one of the race I will be watching closely tomorrow night.

New Mexico - I think its safe to say that Udall has the clear advantage and has had it for some time now. The race has shown some signs of tightening lately so there may be some hope in this state. Again its similar to New Hampshire in that we'll have to watch it but I have a feeling that Udall is headed for the Senate.

Virginia - This seat is all but won by Mark Warner. The election here almost seems like a formality as opposed to anything else. Gilmore is dead in the water and has been from the beginning. He's just not popular enough to overcome Warner's appeal. I see no way to save this seat and personally I'd cut our loses and put money in more useful places.

Louisiana - I think Landrieu is the only beatible Democrat. Unfortunately I think its less and less likely that we will pull off a pick up here. We got the govenorship but we lost the House seat in the special election back in May. We'll have to see what Kennedy can do tomorrow night but I'm not optmistic.

Colorado - Schaffer and Udall seem to for quiet sometime have been running neck and neck. Its one of the few places I think we can save ourselves should all go right. But its going to be tough and at the moment I give Udall the edge. I hope I'm wrong. Schaffer could still win and is probably the most likely seat after New Hampshire and Oregon for the GOP to maintain.

Minnesota - Franken is a complete lunitic. He has been involved in many financial scandles and I think that Coleman is favored to win here. His approval ratings are decent and that's good because we'll need all the wins we can get. Since Venture is not getting involved in the race and Franken looks worse day after day I'd say we can hold this seat. Had the Democrats ran a more moderate candidate they may have had a better shot at Coleman's seat but so far I think we keep this one in our column.

North Carolina - This is one seat I did not expect us to have trouble in but here we are. I still firmly believe that Elizabeth Dole will win reelection and hold her seat. I do acknowledge though that Hagan has given her a run for her money. But in the end I just don't see an upset here. However I feel it too competitive to place in the safe column at this time despite my strong belief that Dole will be back in DC come January.

Oregon - Yet another seat I am suprise to see contested but actually I'm not that saddened over. I think that Smith might actually lose tomorrow and I'm sorry to say I'll lose few tears over it. Smith is one of the biggest RINOs in the Senate along with Specter. He makes Collins and Snowe look reasonible at times. So if he goes I think the GOP will be better for it, at least from a conservative point of view. He'd vote with Democrats anyway. But should he win I'll gladly take the seat.

So if we go with the above map, Democrats come out with 55 seats and Republicans with 43. Not bad all things considered. We still have over 40 seats necessary for a filibuster should we need it. I've recently heard Joe Lieberman say that this is not the Democratic party he joined in 1960 under JFK and that the party has left him. McConnell and other Senate Republicans have said Joe needs to be with us and he's open to it. I think that after the election Lieberman will caucus with the GOP while Sanders stays with the Democrats. That means the Democrats will have a majority of 56 seats and the GOP 44. The House is anyone's guess but I could see gains of up to 10 for either party.

Here's to 2010 and greener congressional pastures!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie

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