Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-07-31 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	16
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	14
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+3	+5	0	0	0	12	0	12	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-3	-5	14	2	16	-5
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	17	36	53
Republican	16	26	42
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	30	18

Analysis

Well, Steven's indictment certainly shakes up the Alaska Senate race. Hopefully Steven's will step down, though I dare not trust to hope, if he doesn't step down theres still a chance he'll get his ass handed to him in the Senate primaries (many were hoping for this even before the indictment...).

Even if another Alaska Republican is the Nominee, I still see a Begich win as likely.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	48/56	38/56	86/112	76.8%	2	169	591	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	29/52	7/52	36/104	34.6%	2	-	124	T	231
2010 Senate	32/37	24/37	56/74	75.7%	5	1	116	T	456
2008 President	50/56	39/56	89/112	79.5%	54	131	247	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%	4	96	172	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	2	140	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	24/52	66/104	63.5%	22	-	26	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	42/49	19/49	61/98	62.2%	39	-	9	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	284/346	176/346	460/692	66.5%

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