Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-26 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	10
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	13	26	39
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	33	22

Analysis

Today's Change: I switched the prediction for Kentucky back to the incumbent McConnell for now. Remember the two "Independent" candidates list above both caucus with the Democrats. Although, Joe Lieberman (I-CT) may not for much longer after he endorsed McCain and spoke at the Republican National Convention.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President
2016 Senate	28/34	14/34	42/68	61.8%	4	27	327	T	362
2016 Governor	6/12	2/12	8/24	33.3%	2	177	274	T	279
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	7	0	182	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	10/33	40/66	60.6%	1	21	252	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	3/11	12/22	54.5%	1	21	196	T	228
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	25	0	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	3	9	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	1	13	152	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	226/246	144/246	370/492	75.2%

Links

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