PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:101

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+4+3+700012012+7
Rep000-4-3-712214-7
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic193655
Republican142640
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553223
piepiepie

Analysis

Democrats make a big haul in the Senate, but fall two seats short of 60...unless close races in Minnesota and Georgia go there way, which as of now doesn't seem likely.


Maine: Collins is in a great position to win re-election. Her popularity has prevented her from emerging into the endangered incumbent many other GOP senators have become...and in a state Barack Obama will be carrying easily.

New Hampshire: Sununu vs. Shaheen the rematch. This time Shaheen should win.

Massachusetts: Kerry can't lose, that's why he'll win.

Rhode Island: Reed is heading for a landslide again.

New Jersey: Lautenberg isn't a great incumbent, but the Democratic tilt here is enough to assure victory for him.

Delaware: Biden will be winning two races. The Vice Presidency, and this seat he's had for ages. Since the Democrats will retain the governorship here, some say his son will replace him. In either case, a hold for the Democrats.

West Virginia: Rockefeller wins again.

Virginia: Mark Warner is going to easily win this seat, setting up only more speculation about him being presidential candidate at a future date.

North Carolina: Dole is done for. Hagan will win.

South Carolina: Black turnout has not made the state competitive for the Dems, yet it has put the Dems into the position of just nibbling on the edges of being competitive. I've seen Bob Conley be right on the edge of being contention, but it hasn't happened, and thus Graham wins another term.

Georgia: This is going to be an interesting race to watch. Barring a real surge in black voter turnout, it appears that Chambliss has enough support to come in first place. It doesn't appear however that he will cross over the threshold of 50% and thus he and Jim Martin will be heading for a runoff. What happens then? I don't know.

Alabama: Sessions is a shoo-in.

Mississippi: Both Cochran and Wicker will win. Wicker has pulled far ahead in recent days.

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander wins.

Arkansas: Mark Pryor likewise.

Kentucky: It looked like McConnell was in for a real scare, but it now appears he has pulled safely enough ahead for the win.

Michigan: Levin gets another term.

Illinois: Durbin will win, and will see his clout rise with Obama in the White House.

Minnesota: This is my close race to watch, and I'm very reluctantly calling it for Coleman. Both candidates have been badly battered, and there is very strong third party candidacy in Barkley. Still I have to make a prediction, and I'm thinking Coleman will scrape by barely.

Iowa: Harkin wins.

Texas: Cornyn will have an unimpressive win. Noriega wasn't enough here.

Oklahoma: Inhofe is in again.

Kansas: Pat Roberts won't lose this one.

Nebraska: Johanns will beat Kleeb.

South Dakota: This was supposed to be one of the few Republican pickup opportunities, but it faded very fast.

Louisiana: Landrieu should win. This was the only real prospect for the GOP for a Senate pickup, but they will be confounded here yet again.

New Mexico and Colorado: I'm just combining these two. Both Udalls are well ahead and will give the Democrats two Western state pickups.

Wyoming: Enzi and Barrasso win.

Montana: Baucus is back.

Idaho: You can be daho next time. But I kid, Risch is a shoo-in.

Oregon: Merkely has runaway with it.

Alaska: Scandal tarred Stevens in toast.


Prediction History
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie


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