Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-30 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	14
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+3	+6	0	0	0	12	0	12	+6
Rep	0	0	0	-3	-3	-6	13	2	15	-6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	18	36	54
Republican	15	26	41
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	31	17

Analysis

I don't believe the doomsday scenarios here, though the R's are sure to lose Alaska now, along with Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico. New Hampshire will be tight but I think Shaheen wins. Oregon is too close to call but I think the D wins there because McCain has no effort in Oregon -- though it could go the other way.

As for the Republican wins, Coleman pulls away I think in light of the endorsements from the major papers there, and I think Dole eeks it out as a result of a powerful new ad. I was never worried about Chambliss, McConnell, or Wicker.

The Republicans desparately need a better recruitment mechanism. Sad part is their best candidate -- Pearce in NM, had to fight against Wilson and that should have been sorted out previously. But why n ot anyone decent vs. Landrieu or Lautenberg?

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	1	279	114	T	678
2008 President	48/56	28/56	76/112	67.9%	2	2	671	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	1	5	172	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	1	5	232	T	264
2004 President	47/56	33/56	80/112	71.4%	2	24	1216	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	185/212	115/212	300/424	70.8%

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