Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-28 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	11
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+3	+6	0	0	0	12	0	12	+6
Rep	0	0	0	-3	-3	-6	13	2	15	-6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	18	36	54
Republican	15	26	41
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
39	29	10

Analysis

Okay, GA is wishful thinking on my part. I really really don't like Chambliss and would love to see him lose. Still, there are quite a few tossups this year and some like GA are surprising.

AK should be a given that the Dem will win considering Stevens' conviction. Mark Warner will win VA by about 2-1 (please ignore the colors, I don't have time to adjust every one for percentage).

I think Elizabeth Dole will win NC in a squeaker, as will Coleman in MN (will the people there really elect the guy who gave us Stuart Smalley??).

The key will be turnout. Who gets out the most votes for their candidate, and how will Obama coattails help in areas like NC.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	55/56	33/56	88/112	78.6%	3	7	276	T	1,505
2008 Senate	29/33	10/33	39/66	59.1%	1	7	358	T	407
2004 President	53/56	19/56	72/112	64.3%	6	1	1581	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	137/145	62/145	199/290	68.6%

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