Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+3	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	32	23

Analysis

Here are my final predictions for the Senate. Mississippi and Wyoming predictions are based on the special elections with incumbent Wicker in Mississippi and Barrasso in Wyoming. My predictions for Cochran and Enzi are R+60%/Strong.

Now for my House predictions. I will only post the seats that change parties, based on my completely objective predictions. A lot of these races could go either way.

R to D (29): AL-02, AK-AL, AZ-01, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-24, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, NV-03, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-11, WA-08

D to R (3): FL-16, PA-11, TX-22

Democrats 262, Republicans 173

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	13	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	26/37	60/74	81.1%	8	0	45	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	0	1	T	103
2008 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	18	0	55	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	4	0	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	3	0	9	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	5	50	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	3	4	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	2	4	10	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	238/248	176/248	414/496	83.5%

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